Automatic Data Processing Inc. released its preliminary estimate for the ADP National Employment Report on October 6, 2026. The report shows that the U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, indicating a slowdown in job growth. This raises concerns about the labor market's health and could impact ADP's business performance.
Investor takeaway: Weak job growth numbers may affect ADP's future revenue and stock performance.
U.S. Added Only 29,000 Jobs in September
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Automatic Data Processing Inc
ADP.US
ADP.US
Automatic Data Processing Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$114.48B
P/E
26.4x
Div. yield
2.32%
Div. / share
$6.64
52W high
$290.12
52W low
$185.56
1W change
+6.65%
Beta
0.84
Analyst Price Targets
Based on 18 analysts covering ADP · as of Oct 7, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ADP stock price to fall 0.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Hold3.28 / 5.00
Avg. Target
C$286.40
-0.9% Upside
Previously C$287.60 on Oct 5, 2026
Current Price
C$288.90
Last close
Analyst Breakdown (18 analysts)
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ADP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$345.38
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$306.62 | C$282.15 – C$333.21 |
| 60 trading days | C$325.42 | C$289.31 – C$366.04 |
| 90 trading days | C$345.38 | C$299.05 – C$398.90 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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This disappointing figure is well below expectations and may influence future economic outlooks.
Bear Case
Sluggish job growth could raise concerns about ADP's revenue and overall market performance.
ADP's Employment Report Highlights Job Growth Slowdown
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The preliminary estimate from the ADP National Employment Report shows that only 29,000 jobs were added in September 2026. This number is significantly lower than anticipated and reflects stagnation in job growth, which could have broader implications for the economy and businesses that rely on a strong labor market. Following the report, ADP's stock closed at $262.16, up 1.00% for the day. However, the stock has declined by 5.65% over the past month and 0.59% over the past week.
Market Performance Metrics in Context
As of the last close, ADP's stock price is 3.4% below its 50-day moving average of $271.35 and 10.2% above its 200-day moving average of $237.98. The stock is currently trading within 76% of its 52-week range, which spans from $185.56 to $286.17. The company's valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 23.79 and a market cap of approximately $103.13 billion. The average analyst target for ADP is $287.60, suggesting a potential upside of 9.7% from the current price.
Future Employment Trends and Implications for ADP
Investors should keep an eye on upcoming employment reports and economic indicators that could impact ADP's revenue and stock performance. The weak job growth might lead to adjustments in market expectations and analyst forecasts, influencing ADP's future stock price movements. Additionally, the recent trading volume of 660,903 shares was notably lower than the 20-day average of 2,270,585 shares, indicating reduced trading activity in response to the employment figures. These trends may reflect cautious sentiment among investors regarding ADP's near-term outlook.
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