Alaris reported Q3 2026 earnings per unit of -C$0.14, well below the C$0.67 estimate. But supplemental figures from the company point to higher distributable cash flow.
Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (TSX: AD-UN) released its results after market close on November 3 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar data shows earnings per unit of -C$0.14, a 120.9% miss against the C$0.67 estimate. That reverses two straight beats, with actual earnings per unit of C$0.69 in both the June and March quarters. Visit the AD-UN stock page for company metrics and coverage.
Recent earnings trend
Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust
AD-UN.TO
AD-UN.TO
Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.18B
P/E
7.0x
Div. yield
6.28%
Div. / share
$1.46
52W high
$25.87
52W low
$17.60
1W change
-5.29%
Beta
1.42
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AD-UN · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast AD-UN stock price to rise 34.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$29.71
+34.9% Upside
Previously C$29.79 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$22.03
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AD-UN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
16.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
18.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$18.43
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.76 | C$19.58 – C$22.00 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.56 | C$18.01 – C$21.24 |
| 90 trading days | C$18.43 | C$16.66 – C$20.39 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-08 | — | 0.4000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | -0.1400 | 0.6700 | -120.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.6900 | 0.4100 | +68.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.6900 | 0.4700 | +46.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-09 | -0.1200 | 0.4200 | -128.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 1.7600 | 0.6600 | +166.7% |
Investor takeaway: The earnings miss is significant, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Investors should also consider the trust’s cash-flow measures. A supplemental headline citing Alaris’s Q3 release reports that net distributable cash flow rose 46.4% year over year to $54.7 million, with estimated run-rate revenue of $231 million. Those figures aren’t in the supplied calendar data, so check the company’s filing to confirm them. Key questions include what drove the negative earnings, how cash generation supports distributions, and whether recent investments and unit financing can sustain growth. A supplemental headline also says the quarterly distribution was set at $0.39 per unit, or $1.56 annualized.
EPS: -C$0.14 actual vs. C$0.67 estimate
The 120.9% miss follows two quarterly beats and another miss in December. The supplied calendar data doesn’t include Q3 revenue or margins, so earnings per unit alone can’t show whether underlying cash performance weakened.
Bull case
The positive case depends on cash generation and portfolio growth, if the full Q3 release confirms the reported figures. Net distributable cash flow reportedly rose 46.4% year over year, a sharp contrast with the negative earnings figure. That gap may reflect the difference between accounting earnings and cash available to the trust.
Alaris also announced a US$95 million investment in Nexus Enterprises and raised its quarterly distribution by 2.6% to $0.39, according to supplemental headlines. The average analyst target is C$29.71, 34.9% above the last close of C$22.03. That target isn’t a guarantee, and the supplied data says no formal rating is available for the Canadian listing. See the analyst targets section for more context.
Bear case
The earnings miss is a clear warning: -C$0.14 against an expected C$0.67, following a -C$0.12 miss in December. Alaris beat estimates in only two of its last four reported quarters.
At the supplied last close of C$22.03, the unit price was below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It was down 4.92% over one day and 7.09% over one month. In September, Alaris raised $115 million through a bought deal, with proceeds intended to repay credit-facility debt. The new units may also affect per-unit comparisons. Before drawing conclusions from the reported cash-flow growth, investors should review the Q3 statements for the reasons behind the earnings result, debt levels and distribution coverage.
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