Algoma Steel Group Inc surprised analysts with a narrower-than-expected loss in its latest earnings report, reflecting a potential turnaround in the company's financials.
Recent earnings trend
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Algoma Steel Group Inc
ASTL.TO
ASTL.TO
Algoma Steel Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$568.04M
52W high
$8.16
52W low
$4.20
1W change
-11.49%
Beta
1.64
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ASTL
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise 41.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$7.63
+41.5% Upside
Current Price
C$5.39
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ASTL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
59.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
55.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$4.51
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$5.08 | C$4.13 – C$6.24 |
| 60 trading days | C$4.79 | C$3.58 – C$6.40 |
| 90 trading days | C$4.51 | C$3.16 – C$6.44 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.6265 | -0.8000 | +21.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | -1.5000 | -1.1500 | -30.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -2.5400 | -1.0800 | -135.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | -1.1400 | -0.9800 | -16.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | -0.9100 | -0.5500 | -65.5% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-29 | -0.4700 | -1.0700 | +56.1% |
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On July 29, 2026, Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL.TO) reported its earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, showcasing an EPS of -0.6265, which exceeded analysts' expectations of -0.8 by a notable 21.69%. This performance marks a significant moment for the company, particularly in the context of its recent operational challenges.
Investor takeaway: Despite the continued losses, the better-than-expected EPS suggests that Algoma Steel may be on a path to recovery. Investors should monitor upcoming quarters for signs of sustained improvement and operational efficiency, particularly as the company transitions to Electric Arc Furnace steelmaking.
EPS Surprise of 21.69%
Algoma Steel's EPS of -0.6265 significantly outperformed the consensus estimate of -0.8, highlighting a potential shift in the company's operational efficiency.
Bull case
The positive surprise in EPS shows that Algoma Steel is managing its costs well and might improve as the market stabilizes. The move to Electric Arc Furnace technology could boost production efficiency and lower costs over time.
Bear case
Even with the better-than-expected results, the company is still facing tough financial challenges, with a profit margin loss of 60.03%. Ongoing operational and market pressures could impact future performance, especially if steel prices stay unstable.
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