Algoma Steel’s latest loss was smaller than analysts expected, but the company remains deeply unprofitable as it deals with power disruptions and brings new electric-arc-furnace capacity online.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (TSX: ASTL) reported a loss of C$0.43 per share for the fiscal second quarter ended September 30, 2026. Analysts had expected a loss of C$0.73 per share, making the result a 41.1% positive surprise. The company is still losing money. An earlier power outage halted electric-arc-furnace production. Algoma said production resumed under interim power arrangements, and its second EAF unit produced its first steel on October 9.
Recent earnings trend
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Algoma Steel Group Inc
ASTL.TO
ASTL.TO
Algoma Steel Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$708.21M
52W high
$8.16
52W low
$4.46
1W change
+10.16%
Beta
1.65
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ASTL · as of Sep 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ASTL stock price to rise 54.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$7.63
+54.4% Upside
Previously C$7.38 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$4.94
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ASTL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
49.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
69.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$8.30
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$7.37 | C$6.22 – C$8.72 |
| 60 trading days | C$7.82 | C$6.15 – C$9.93 |
| 90 trading days | C$8.30 | C$6.19 – C$11.12 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-10 | — | -0.2000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | -0.4300 | -0.7300 | +41.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | -0.3600 | -0.8000 | +55.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | -1.5000 | -1.1500 | -30.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | -2.5400 | -1.0800 | -135.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | -1.1400 | -0.9800 | -16.3% |
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Investor takeaway: The earnings beat is encouraging, but it doesn’t yet show that Algoma is on a lasting path to recovery. The company has reported losses in each of the last four comparable quarters, and its trailing earnings per share and profit margin remain deeply negative. Investors will want to see whether EAF production ramps up reliably and results improve as power arrangements stabilize. Visit the ASTL stock page for company coverage, analyst targets, and the statistical price forecast.
C$0.43 loss per share
Algoma’s loss was C$0.30 per share smaller than the C$0.73 analysts had forecast, resulting in a 41.1% positive surprise. That’s a beat against expectations, not a return to profitability.
Bull case
Algoma’s loss was smaller than the one-analyst consensus forecast. Expectations had also improved over the previous 30 days, with the forecast loss narrowing from C$0.44 to C$0.31 per share. The company’s second EAF unit produced its first steel on October 9. That’s a potential milestone if the ramp-up goes well. The shares also closed above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, though that doesn’t replace the need for stronger business results.
Bear case
Algoma is still losing money, with trailing earnings per share of -C$10.15 and a reported profit margin of -71.61%. The company missed estimates in two of the last four comparable quarters, including a substantial miss for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A supplemental report put the latest quarter’s adjusted EBITDA loss at C$13.9 million. Recent power disruptions and the new unit’s ramp-up also leave questions about execution and operating reliability.
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