Aris Mining’s latest quarterly earnings fell short of expectations after three straight comparable-quarter beats. Investors will now watch production and progress on the company’s growth projects.
Aris Mining Corporation (TSX: ARIS) reported results after market close on November 4 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Earnings per share were C$0.35, below the C$0.39 estimate by 10.3%. Revenue and margin comparisons weren’t included in the supplied data, so it’s not possible to tell what drove the shortfall.
Recent earnings trend
Aris Mining Corporation
ARIS.TO
ARIS.TO
Aris Mining Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$4.55B
P/E
10.9x
52W high
$31.47
52W low
$14.98
1W change
+14.95%
Beta
2.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ARIS · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ARIS stock price to rise 75.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$41.39
+75.9% Upside
Previously C$40.87 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$23.53
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ARIS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
66.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
64.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-12.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$22.49
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$23.18 | C$18.43 – C$29.15 |
| 60 trading days | C$22.83 | C$16.51 – C$31.57 |
| 90 trading days | C$22.49 | C$15.12 – C$33.45 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.6000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3500 | 0.3900 | -10.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.4700 | 0.4300 | +9.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.6000 | 0.5900 | +1.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | 0.4600 | 0.4300 | +7.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.3600 | 0.3600 | +0.0% |
Investor takeaway: The miss breaks a recent run of strong results, but Aris still beat estimates in three of the previous four reported quarters. Investors will be looking for the company to meet its 2026 production guidance and bring Marmato’s new plant online as planned. Without quarterly revenue and margin figures, the cause of the EPS miss remains unclear.
C$0.35 EPS versus C$0.39 expected
Aris missed the quarterly EPS estimate by 10.3%. Before this quarter, it had beaten estimates in each of its previous three reported quarters. EPS was C$0.47 versus C$0.43 in June, C$0.60 versus C$0.59 in March, and C$0.46 versus C$0.43 in December 2025.
Bull case
Aris beat estimates in three of its previous four comparable quarters. Production for the first nine months of the year rose 16% from a year earlier to 217,300 ounces. The company also expects first gold from Marmato’s new CIP plant in December. Analyst price targets point to substantial upside from the latest close, but targets are estimates, not guarantees.
Bear case
The September-quarter miss ends Aris’s recent run of beats. A supplemental headline, which hasn’t been independently verified here, says the company is aiming for the lower end of its 2026 production guidance range of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces. The next-quarter EPS estimate comes from just two analysts, and revenue estimates weren’t available. Project timing and execution remain key uncertainties.
Analysis
Aris Mining reported EPS of C$0.35 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, below the C$0.39 consensus estimate. Before this quarter, it had beaten estimates in three consecutive comparable quarters: C$0.47 versus C$0.43 in June, C$0.60 versus C$0.59 in March, and C$0.46 versus C$0.43 in December 2025.
The supplied earnings data doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margin figures, so it doesn’t show what caused the latest miss. The earnings trend table and chart provide a quarter-by-quarter comparison. For company and share details, visit the Aris Mining stock page.
Analysis
Aris is working to advance its production and development projects. A supplemental headline, not independently verified in the supplied context, says the company is targeting the lower end of its 2026 production guidance range of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces and expects first gold from Marmato’s new CIP plant in December. A separate company update summarized in the supplied headlines reported nine-month production of 217,300 ounces, up 16% year over year, and said the plant remained on track to produce first gold in the fourth quarter.
These milestones matter to Aris’s outlook, but they don’t explain the quarterly EPS miss. Follow the company’s results and updates on the ARIS stock page.
Analysis
The average analyst price target is C$41.39, compared with the latest supplied closing price of C$23.53. That’s 75.9% above the close, though price targets are estimates. The context describes the consensus as bullish based on the target comparison; a formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings.
The next-quarter EPS consensus is C$0.59, with a range of C$0.50 to C$0.69 based on two analysts. It isn’t a guarantee, and no analyst revenue estimate was supplied.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model is not financial advice. It gives a mean forecast of C$22.49, below the C$23.53 reference price. The model’s 68% range is C$15.12 to C$33.45, and its 95% range is C$10.16 to C$49.76. It reports annualized drift of -12.7% and 30-day volatility of 66.4%, highlighting the uncertainty around a volatile mining stock. See the analyst targets and Wealth Awesome price forecast for details.
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