AtkinsRéalis posted adjusted diluted EPS of C$1.20 in Q3, beating the C$1.11 estimate. Record revenue and adjusted EBITDA were offset by a weaker regional outlook and a smaller nuclear backlog.
AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. (TSX: ATRL) reported third-quarter 2026 results before markets opened on November 5. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at C$1.20, 8.1% above the C$1.11 estimate. IFRS diluted EPS was C$0.83, down from C$0.88 a year earlier. Revenue reached a quarterly record of C$3.1 billion, and adjusted EBITDA also hit a quarterly record. For Canadian investors, the results show solid execution alongside a mixed outlook across regions and a shrinking nuclear backlog.
Recent earnings trend
AtkinsRealis Group Inc
ATRL.TO
ATRL.TO
AtkinsRealis Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$13.88B
P/E
33.1x
Div. yield
0.09%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$106.75
52W low
$79.14
1W change
+2.05%
Beta
0.96
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ATRL · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ATRL stock price to rise 31.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$116.07
+31.7% Upside
Previously C$115.93 on Oct 22, 2026
Current Price
C$88.10
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ATRL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
30.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
29.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+9.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$90.96
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$89.04 | C$80.10 – C$98.99 |
| 60 trading days | C$90.00 | C$77.49 – C$104.53 |
| 90 trading days | C$90.96 | C$75.73 – C$109.27 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 1.2000 | 1.1100 | +8.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.9700 | 0.9300 | +4.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-14 | 0.8000 | 0.7400 | +8.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-27 | 1.0000 | 0.9700 | +3.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-13 | 1.1000 | 0.8800 | +25.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.8000 | 0.7200 | +11.1% |
Investor takeaway: Revenue grew 10.7%, adjusted EBITDA rose 14.3%, and total backlog stood at C$20.5 billion. But the adjusted EPS beat came alongside lower IFRS EPS, a reduced low-single-digit organic growth outlook for Engineering Services Regions, and a 20% year-over-year drop in nuclear backlog. The key question is whether project delivery and nuclear demand can replenish the backlog and support cash generation.
C$1.20 adjusted diluted EPS
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.1% from C$1.10 a year earlier and beat the C$1.11 estimate by 8.1%. IFRS diluted EPS tells a different story: it was C$0.83, compared with C$0.88 in Q3 2025.
Bull case
AtkinsRéalis has posted sequential growth in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS for three quarters in a row. Record quarterly revenue and a broad mix of engineering and nuclear projects supported the gains. Nuclear revenue grew 10.3% year over year, and Engineering Services margins improved.
The company reported a total backlog of C$20.5 billion and expects at least C$500 million in operating cash flow in 2026. Its CANDU technology and nuclear lifecycle services could benefit from demand for reliable power and infrastructure.
Bear case
The quarter had some weaker spots. IFRS diluted EPS fell year over year, and the effective tax rate rose to 25.7%. Revenue and margins in AMEA weakened amid conflict in the Middle East and project cancellations. AtkinsRéalis lowered its 2026 organic revenue growth outlook for Engineering Services Regions to the low single digits.
Nuclear backlog fell 20% year over year to C$4.3 billion as projects progressed, making follow-on awards important to future activity. The reported profit margin is 3.47%, and the stock trades at about 33 times earnings, leaving its valuation sensitive to execution.
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Wealth Awesome
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