Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp's latest earnings report shows it continues to struggle to meet analyst expectations, raising concerns about its growth.
On August 6, 2026, Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp (AI.TO) released its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, marking another disappointing performance. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, falling short of the estimated $0.25, which results in a 4.0% earnings surprise to the downside. This is the fourth consecutive quarter that Atrium has not met its EPS estimates.
Recent earnings trend
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Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
AI.TO
AI.TO
Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp
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Market cap
$563.78M
P/E
11.8x
Div. yield
4.04%
Div. / share
$0.47
52W high
$12.11
52W low
$10.34
1W change
+2.18%
Beta
0.85
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AI
Wall Street analysts forecast AI stock price to rise 10.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$12.88
+10.1% Upside
Current Price
C$11.70
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
14.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
12.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-1.1%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$11.66
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$11.69 | C$11.10 โ C$12.30 |
| 60 trading days | C$11.67 | C$10.85 โ C$12.55 |
| 90 trading days | C$11.66 | C$10.66 โ C$12.74 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-11 | โ | 0.2500 | โ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.2400 | 0.2500 | -4.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.2500 | 0.2600 | -3.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.2700 | 0.2400 | +12.5% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should think about what Atrium's ongoing earnings misses mean, especially given its limited analyst coverage and the competitive mortgage finance sector. With a dividend yield of 4.04%, the stock might still attract income-focused investors, but the consistent earnings shortfall raises questions about future growth and profitability.
EPS Missed by 4%: $0.24 vs. $0.25 Estimate
Atrium's EPS of $0.24 is down from $0.27 a year ago, showing a year-over-year drop of 5.6%. This trend of declining earnings could be a warning sign for potential investors.
Bull case
Atrium boasts a strong profit margin of 81% and a steady dividend payout, which may attract income-seeking investors. As an alternative mortgage lender in Canada, the company has a solid market presence that could provide stability in a fluctuating market.
Bear case
The trend of missing earnings estimates might indicate deeper issues within Atrium's business model or market conditions. With no revenue growth and increasing competition in the mortgage finance sector, investors should proceed with caution.
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โ ๏ธ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
