A&W Food Services of Canada reported fiscal Q3 earnings per share of C$0.80, beating the C$0.66 estimate by 21.2%. It’s the company’s fourth straight quarterly earnings beat. Sales growth and a new corporate strategy add context to the result.
A&W Food Services of Canada (TSX: AW) reported results for the third quarter, ended September 30, 2026, before the market opened on October 16. Earnings per share were C$0.80, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.66. System sales grew 3.8%, while same-store sales rose 1.8%. A&W also opened nine restaurants and announced a new mission and corporate strategy. Follow the company on the A&W stock page.
Recent earnings trend
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A&W Food Services of Canada
AW.TO
AW.TO
A&W Food Services of Canada
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$865.29M
P/E
15.3x
52W high
$37.16
52W low
$33.48
1W change
-0.06%
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AW · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast AW stock price to rise 10.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$40.00
+10.8% Upside
Current Price
C$36.10
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AW's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
16.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
14.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-3.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$35.65
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$35.95 | C$34.00 – C$38.02 |
| 60 trading days | C$35.80 | C$33.08 – C$38.75 |
| 90 trading days | C$35.65 | C$32.36 – C$39.28 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-18 | — | 0.7400 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-16 | 0.8000 | 0.6600 | +21.2% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-23 | 0.6000 | 0.5400 | +11.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.4361 | 0.4141 | +5.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | 0.6800 | 0.6300 | +7.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-17 | 0.6200 | 0.5800 | +6.9% |
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Investor takeaway: A&W beat earnings expectations by a wide margin and has done so in each of its last four comparable quarters. But the operating picture is more mixed. Same-store sales grew 1.8%, and the available information doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so it’s hard to tell how sales translated into profit. The current consensus is based on one analyst, making it a limited measure of market expectations.
C$0.80 EPS, 21.2% above estimate
A&W earned C$0.80 per share for the quarter ended September 30, against an estimate of C$0.66. It has beaten estimates in each of its last four comparable reported quarters, by 21.2%, 11.1%, 5.3% and 7.9%. The current consensus includes just one analyst, so the estimate base is small.
Bull case
A&W has beaten earnings estimates for four straight quarters, grown same-store sales and continued opening restaurants. Its new strategy could help support that growth, and this quarter’s result came in well above expectations. The limited-time Hot Honey BBQ Teen Burger is another menu initiative, though its effect on sales isn’t yet known.
Bear case
An earnings beat doesn’t necessarily mean demand is stronger or margins are improving. Same-store sales grew 1.8%, a positive but modest increase, and the available results don’t include quarterly revenue or margin details. The consensus data covers only one analyst, and the statistical 90-day model’s average price is below the current share price. A&W’s supplied fundamentals snapshot shows no dividend yield, although separate company news reports a quarterly cash dividend. Check the security and distribution details before relying on that headline.
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