Aya Gold & Silver Inc faced a notable earnings disappointment this quarter, falling significantly short of analyst expectations.
Recent earnings trend
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Aya Gold & Silver Inc
AYA.TO
AYA.TO
Aya Gold & Silver Inc
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Market cap
$5.18B
P/E
43.3x
52W high
$40.16
52W low
$11.45
1W change
-5.10%
Beta
1.70
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering AYA
Wall Street analysts forecast AYA stock price to fall 1.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$35.57
-1.1% Upside
Current Price
C$35.95
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on AYA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
82.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
82.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$42.98
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$38.15 | C$28.72 – C$50.69 |
| 60 trading days | C$40.49 | C$27.09 – C$60.52 |
| 90 trading days | C$42.98 | C$26.27 – C$70.31 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-13 | 0.2300 | 0.3500 | -34.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-14 | 0.3300 | 0.3800 | -13.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-31 | 0.1200 | 0.1700 | -29.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-11 | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-14 | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | +50.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-13 | 0.0500 | 0.0100 | +400.0% |
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In its latest earnings report, Aya Gold & Silver Inc (AYA.TO) announced an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.23, missing the consensus estimate of 0.35 by 34.3%. This marks the company's fourth consecutive quarter of missing EPS estimates, raising concerns among investors about its operational performance and market positioning.
Investor takeaway: Investors should remain cautious as Aya Gold & Silver grapples with ongoing earnings misses and weak revenue growth prospects. The company’s ability to rebound in the upcoming quarters will be critical for restoring investor confidence.
Bull case
Aya Gold & Silver holds a strong position in the market, backed by significant silver reserves. With silver prices remaining strong, there’s potential for future growth. If management can effectively implement its operational strategies and enhance production efficiency, the company might reverse its earnings trend.
Bear case
The ongoing earnings misses point to deeper operational challenges. With limited analyst coverage and stagnant revenue growth, there are genuine concerns about the company's ability to meet future expectations. Additionally, the high P/E ratio of 43.31 could suggest that the stock is overvalued in a tough market.
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