Barrick Gold's latest earnings report shows it missed expectations, raising concerns about its growth outlook.
Recent earnings trend
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Barrick Gold Corp
ABX.TO
ABX.TO
Barrick Gold Corp
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Market cap
$95.55B
P/E
9.5x
Div. yield
0.94%
Div. / share
$0.57
52W high
$73.08
52W low
$30.91
1W change
+10.85%
Beta
1.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering ABX
Wall Street analysts forecast ABX stock price to rise 14.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$65.11
+14.2% Upside
Current Price
C$57.03
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ABX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
48.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
49.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-31.7%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$50.93
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$54.92 | C$46.49 – C$64.87 |
| 60 trading days | C$52.88 | C$41.78 – C$66.93 |
| 90 trading days | C$50.93 | C$38.16 – C$67.96 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-10 | 0.8200 | 0.8400 | -2.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-11 | 0.9800 | 0.8100 | +21.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-05 | 1.0400 | 0.8800 | +18.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-10 | 0.5800 | 0.6100 | -4.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-11 | 0.4700 | 0.4600 | +2.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-07 | 0.3500 | 0.3000 | +16.7% |
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Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) released its second-quarter earnings for the fiscal period ending June 30, 2026, on August 10, 2026. The results revealed an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.82, falling short of analysts' expectations of $0.84, a surprise of -2.38%. Even with increased production, the market reacted negatively, leading to a drop in share price.
Investor takeaway: Investors should keep a close eye on Barrick's operational changes and future prospects, especially considering the recent joint venture agreement with Newmont that could reshape its asset portfolio. Given the earnings miss, it's wise to be cautious as the company navigates its growth strategy amid fluctuating gold prices.
Adjusted EPS of $0.82 Misses Estimates by 2.4%
The earnings miss, despite a year-over-year increase from $0.47, indicates challenges in aligning production growth with market expectations.
Bull case
Barrick's increased gold production of 796,000 ounces—11% above guidance—along with its significant joint venture agreement with Newmont, puts it in a strong position for future growth. The IPO of its North American assets could unlock additional value for shareholders.
Bear case
Despite higher production, Barrick's earnings miss points to potential operational inefficiencies or a disconnect with market expectations. The recent drop in share price reflects investor concerns about the company’s ability to meet growth targets in a volatile gold market.
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