Capital Power reported third-quarter EPS of C$1.03, above the C$0.96 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA hit a quarterly record, but AFFO fell and the company raised its sustaining-capital outlook.
Capital Power Corporation (TSX: CPX) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, before markets opened on November 2. EPS was C$1.0257, 6.8% above the C$0.96 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA rose C$76 million from a year earlier to C$553 million, while AFFO fell from C$369 million to C$306 million. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and AFFO, but increased its sustaining-capital spending range.
Recent earnings trend
Capital Power Corporation
CPX.TO
CPX.TO
Capital Power Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$9.96B
P/E
121.9x
Div. yield
4.38%
Div. / share
$2.76
52W high
$76.15
52W low
$54.73
1W change
+4.17%
Beta
0.42
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CPX · as of Nov 3, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast CPX stock price to rise 21.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$76.85
+21.2% Upside
Previously C$77.08 on Oct 27, 2026
Current Price
C$63.41
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CPX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
22.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
25.7%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-2.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$62.76
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$63.19 | C$58.50 – C$68.27 |
| 60 trading days | C$62.98 | C$56.46 – C$70.24 |
| 90 trading days | C$62.76 | C$54.90 – C$71.74 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 1.0257 | 0.9600 | +6.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0800 | 0.4700 | -83.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.5300 | 0.5600 | -5.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 1.2800 | 0.5800 | +120.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.9200 | 0.9900 | -7.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | -2.0% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat and record adjusted EBITDA reflect strong operating results. But AFFO declined year over year, and the company now expects to spend C$350 million–C$370 million on sustaining capital in 2026. Investors weighing CPX.TO’s income and growth prospects can visit the Capital Power stock page for analyst views and forecasts.
C$553 million
Capital Power’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached a record C$553 million, up C$76 million from a year earlier. AFFO moved in the opposite direction, falling C$63 million to C$306 million. The higher sustaining-capital outlook is another reminder that earnings growth doesn’t always mean more cash is available to investors.
Bull case
Capital Power generated 14.5 terawatt-hours in the quarter, up 8% year over year. Its U.S. fleet produced 60% of that total. About 75% of expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA is covered by long-term contracts, and the company signed a 250 MW energy supply agreement with Meta for an Alberta data centre. Capital Power also reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: C$1.565 billion–C$1.765 billion in adjusted EBITDA and C$890 million–C$1.010 billion in AFFO.
Bear case
AFFO fell C$63 million year over year to C$306 million. Capital Power also raised its sustaining-capital guidance from C$290 million–C$330 million to C$350 million–C$370 million. The company said the increase reflects unplanned outage work and an outage moved up from 2027. It expects insurance recoveries and concessions from equipment manufacturers to cover a meaningful share of the added costs. For next quarter, revenue consensus is C$1.02 billion, down an estimated 16.1% year over year. The three-analyst EPS consensus is C$1.07.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
