Capital Power Corporation's latest earnings report revealed a significant earnings miss, raising questions about its operational efficiency and future outlook.
On July 29, 2026, Capital Power Corporation (TSX: CPX) reported its second-quarter results for the fiscal period ending June 30, 2026, revealing an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.08, falling drastically short of the estimated $0.47. This represents a staggering 82.98% surprise to the downside, prompting a deeper look into the company's performance and future prospects.
Recent earnings trend
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Capital Power Corporation
CPX.TO
CPX.TO
Capital Power Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$10.57B
P/E
118.1x
Div. yield
4.20%
Div. / share
$2.76
52W high
$77.02
52W low
$53.91
1W change
-1.25%
Beta
0.41
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CPX
Wall Street analysts forecast CPX stock price to rise 15.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$77.92
+15.8% Upside
Current Price
C$67.32
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CPX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
28.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
30.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+7.5%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$69.15
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$67.92 | C$61.56 – C$74.94 |
| 60 trading days | C$68.53 | C$59.64 – C$78.75 |
| 90 trading days | C$69.15 | C$58.32 – C$81.98 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | — | 0.9100 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0800 | 0.4700 | -83.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.5300 | 0.5600 | -5.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 1.2800 | 0.5800 | +120.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.9200 | 0.9900 | -7.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | -2.0% |
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Investor takeaway: The substantial earnings miss highlights operational challenges at Capital Power, despite strong revenue growth and a strategic long-term agreement with Meta Platforms. Investors should consider the implications of these results on future earnings and the company’s ability to navigate the evolving energy landscape.
EPS Misses Estimates by 83.0%
With an EPS of $0.08 against an estimate of $0.47, Capital Power's performance starkly contrasts with the anticipated growth, highlighting operational hurdles that need to be addressed.
Bull case
Capital Power's long-term energy supply agreement with Meta Platforms is a positive sign of its ability to secure contracts and generate revenue, which could lead to future growth. Plus, the company’s commitment to increasing its dividend for the 13th consecutive year shows confidence in its operational strategy and cash flow generation.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss raises concerns about Capital Power's operational efficiency and its ability to manage costs effectively. The reported net loss, along with challenges in Alberta's energy market, could indicate underlying issues that may affect future profitability.
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