Collective Mining Ltd's latest earnings report shows a significant shortfall against expectations, raising concerns about its operational efficiency and future prospects.
On August 12, 2026, Collective Mining Ltd (CNL.TO) released its earnings for the fiscal period ending June 30, 2026. The results reveal a notable miss in earnings per share (EPS), with an actual EPS of -0.3065 compared to the estimated -0.12, leading to a surprise percentage of -155.42%. This continues a trend of disappointing earnings for the company, which has not met EPS estimates in the last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
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Collective Mining Ltd
CNL.TO
CNL.TO
Collective Mining Ltd
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Market cap
$1.83B
52W high
$30.12
52W low
$13.14
1W change
+10.09%
Beta
1.00
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering CNL
Wall Street analysts forecast CNL stock price to rise 69.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$33.95
+69.1% Upside
Current Price
C$20.08
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on CNL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
67.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
66.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$16.80
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$18.92 | C$15.01 – C$23.85 |
| 60 trading days | C$17.83 | C$12.85 – C$24.73 |
| 90 trading days | C$16.80 | C$11.25 – C$25.08 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | -0.3065 | -0.1200 | -155.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | -0.1800 | -0.1400 | -28.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-30 | -0.1949 | -0.1000 | -94.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | -0.1800 | -0.1300 | -38.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-13 | -0.1500 | -0.1400 | -7.1% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-13 | -0.3100 | -0.1100 | -181.8% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should keep a close eye on Collective Mining's operational strategies and market positioning, especially after its recent move to list on the Nasdaq. The earnings miss could affect investor sentiment, but there may be hope in potential future growth from exploration projects.
Bull case
The company’s strategic projects in Caldas, Colombia, particularly the Guayabales project, have strong growth potential. With a capable management team and insider ownership of 45.2%, there’s alignment with shareholder interests, which could drive better performance in the future.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss raises concerns about operational efficiency and cost management. With a history of missing EPS estimates, investor confidence may decline, especially given recent market volatility and the speculative nature of mining.
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