Element Fleet Management posted year-over-year growth in the third quarter, but calendar EPS came in just below estimates. Management also lowered its outlook for 2026 originations.
Element Fleet Management Corp. (TSX: EFN) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar EPS was C$0.49, slightly below the C$0.50 estimate. The company reported diluted EPS of US$0.33 and adjusted diluted EPS of US$0.35, up 6% from a year earlier. Net revenue rose 5% to US$320.7 million.
Recent earnings trend
Element Fleet Management Corp
EFN.TO
EFN.TO
Element Fleet Management Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$7.80B
P/E
19.3x
Div. yield
2.14%
Div. / share
$0.42
52W high
$37.23
52W low
$19.11
1W change
-8.14%
Beta
0.44
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EFN · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EFN stock price to rise 60.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$32.20
+60.4% Upside
Previously C$33.90 on Oct 29, 2026
Current Price
C$20.08
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EFN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
44.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
36.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$16.80
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$18.92 | C$16.24 – C$22.04 |
| 60 trading days | C$17.83 | C$14.36 – C$22.12 |
| 90 trading days | C$16.80 | C$12.89 – C$21.88 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-23 | — | 0.4900 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-02 | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | -2.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.4800 | 0.4900 | -2.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.4800 | 0.4600 | +4.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-24 | 0.4500 | 0.4600 | -2.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4600 | 0.4500 | +2.2% |
The outlook was less positive. Element expects 2026 originations to fall below its previous guidance range, with other full-year measures at or near the lower end of guidance. For more details, see the EFN stock page.
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss was small. The bigger question is whether Element can turn its fleet scale and productivity investments into stronger organic growth. Revenue, adjusted EPS and free cash flow per share all rose year over year, and vehicles under management grew 3%. But originations fell 2%, expenses grew faster than revenue, and management expects 2027 net revenue growth to slow to low single digits before foreign-exchange effects. Canadian investors should also note that calendar EPS is in Canadian dollars, while the company’s reported and adjusted EPS figures are in U.S. dollars.
US$320.7 million
Third-quarter net revenue rose 5% year over year to US$320.7 million. Services revenue increased 5% to US$164 million, and net financing revenue also grew. But adjusted operating expenses rose 8%, pushing adjusted operating margin down 120 basis points to 56.8%. Revenue growth is a positive, but Element will need to control costs and increase originations to improve operating leverage.
Bull case
Element’s third-quarter net revenue rose 5% to US$320.7 million, and adjusted EPS increased 6% to US$0.35. Adjusted free cash flow per share grew 7% to US$0.45, while adjusted return on equity rose 140 basis points to 20.2%. Vehicles under management increased 3% to 1.58 million.
The company added 49 clients and reported lower operating expenses for a second straight quarter. It also remains on track to deliver about US$20 million in annualized productivity savings starting in 2027. A 2.14% dividend yield and plans to continue share repurchases may appeal to investors seeking shareholder returns. Still, Element needs to improve growth.
Bear case
Element’s operating outlook has weakened. Originations fell 2% year over year, and the company now expects full-year 2026 originations to come in below its previous guidance range. It expects other 2026 measures to land at or near the lower end of guidance. For 2027, management expects net revenue growth to slow to low single digits, excluding foreign-exchange effects.
Adjusted operating expenses rose 8%, faster than revenue, and adjusted operating margin fell 120 basis points to 56.8%. At the supplied last close of C$20.08, the share price was below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That technical picture reflects the market’s concerns about growth.
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