Emera’s third-quarter adjusted EPS missed expectations. Management reaffirmed its growth outlook and increased its capital plan.
Emera Inc. (TSX: EMA), also known as EMA.TO, reported adjusted EPS of C$0.85 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That was 4.5% below the C$0.89 consensus estimate and 3% lower than a year earlier, according to the company’s earnings-call highlights. It was the third miss in the past four comparable quarters. Other signals for Canadian investors include a larger five-year investment plan, faster expected rate-base growth and a proposed merger with Canadian Utilities that still needs regulatory approval.
Recent earnings trend
Emera Inc.
EMA.TO
EMA.TO
Emera Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$21.99B
P/E
23.9x
52W high
$76.41
52W low
$62.16
1W change
+3.92%
Beta
0.44
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering EMA · as of Oct 30, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast EMA stock price to rise 2.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$73.55
+2.7% Upside
Previously C$73.64 on Oct 21, 2026
Current Price
C$71.59
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on EMA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
21.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
17.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+3.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$72.51
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$71.90 | C$66.75 – C$77.44 |
| 60 trading days | C$72.21 | C$65.00 – C$80.21 |
| 90 trading days | C$72.51 | C$63.76 – C$82.48 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 10 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-26 | — | 0.5100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-06 | 0.8500 | 0.8900 | -4.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.6900 | 0.7100 | -2.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 1.3700 | 1.1988 | +14.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-23 | 0.5500 | 0.5800 | -5.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-07 | 0.8800 | 0.8600 | +2.3% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss is a near-term setback, but Emera says it remains on track to grow adjusted EPS by more than its 5%–7% target range in 2026. Investors will need to weigh that outlook and the higher rate-base growth target against the funding needs of a C$21.5-billion capital plan, as well as the execution and approval risks tied to the proposed merger.
C$0.85 adjusted EPS
Emera’s adjusted EPS was C$0.04 below the C$0.89 consensus estimate, a 4.5% miss. The company reported adjusted earnings of C$260 million for the quarter and C$887 million year to date, up C$9 million from the same period last year. Year-to-date operating cash flow rose 7%, excluding working capital.
Bull case
Emera raised its expected rate-base growth range to 7.5%–8.5% through 2031. Its Florida utilities are expected to grow at close to 9%. The company plans to invest about C$4 billion in 2026, its largest annual capital plan so far, and says it remains on track to exceed its 2026 adjusted EPS growth target. Emera also raised its dividend by 1%, extending its annual increase streak to 20 years.
Bear case
Adjusted EPS fell 3% from a year earlier and missed estimates. The larger capital plan also means Emera needs more funding. The company expects operating cash flow to cover 45%–50% of capital needs, debt to cover 30%–35%, and DRIP or ATM equity issuance to cover 10%–15%. The Canadian Utilities merger still needs regulatory approval, and uncertainty around regulation in Nova Scotia could affect Emera’s ability to earn a fair return.
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