Fairfax’s third-quarter EPS beat the calendar estimate by 85.8%, but profit fell from a year earlier and investment losses weighed on results.
Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSX: FFH) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar data shows EPS of 74.11, compared with an estimate of 39.89. But the company’s U.S.-dollar results were mixed: net earnings attributable to shareholders fell 19.3% year over year to US$929.6 million, or US$43.32 per diluted share, from US$1.15 billion, or US$52.04. Insurance operations remained profitable and premiums grew, but investment losses, especially on bonds, pulled down earnings.
Recent earnings trend
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$61.62B
P/E
11.3x
52W high
$2788.03
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+11.73%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Nov 6, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to fall 1.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2674.98
-1.3% Upside
Previously C$2679.33 on Nov 5, 2026
Current Price
C$2710.27
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
34.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$3240.15
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2876.49 | C$2553.53 – C$3240.31 |
| 60 trading days | C$3052.91 | C$2579.69 – C$3612.95 |
| 90 trading days | C$3240.15 | C$2636.20 – C$3982.46 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 32.9000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 74.1100 | 39.8900 | +85.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat doesn’t tell the whole story. Fairfax reported solid underwriting and premium growth, but investment results swung sharply, leaving profit below last year’s level. Investors may want to watch whether insurance earnings and book-value growth can offset market-driven swings in the portfolio. They’ll also need to weigh the proposed IDBI Bank acquisition and Fairfax’s financing plans.
US$827.7 million
Bond losses made up the largest share of Fairfax’s US$858.7-million investment loss for the quarter. That helps explain why stronger insurance operations didn’t lead to higher earnings than a year ago.
Bull case
Fairfax’s insurance and reinsurance operations generated US$1.38 billion in adjusted operating income, up 2.4% from a year earlier. Gross premiums written rose 9.3% to US$8.94 billion. Book value per basic share reached US$1,349.15 on September 30, up from US$1,260.19 at the end of 2025. The undiscounted combined ratio was 92.5%. A ratio below 100% indicates underwriting income before investment results. Together, these figures show that Fairfax’s core insurance operations held up despite the investment losses.
Bear case
Net earnings fell from a year earlier as Fairfax recorded US$858.7 million in investment losses, compared with US$426.2 million in gains in the same quarter last year. Bond losses accounted for US$827.7 million, largely due to unrealized losses on U.S. Treasuries as interest rates rose. The combined ratio also increased from 92.0% to 92.5%.
The proposed US$5.6-billion IDBI Bank transaction still needs definitive agreements and regulatory approvals. Fairfax has also announced a C$650-million senior-notes offering. It may use the proceeds to meet debt obligations, make investments or cover general corporate needs.
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