Fairfax’s calendar EPS beat estimates by 85.8%. But the headline result came alongside lower year-over-year earnings and significant investment losses.
Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSX: FFH) reported third-quarter results after markets closed on November 3, 2026. Calendar EPS was US$74.11, compared with an estimate of US$39.89. Reported net earnings were US$929.6 million, or US$43.32 per diluted share, down from US$1.15 billion, or US$52.04 per share, a year earlier. Strong insurance operations and premium growth were offset by investment losses, especially on bonds.
Recent earnings trend
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$57.46B
P/E
9.7x
Div. yield
0.55%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2788.03
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+6.86%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 3.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2767.06
+3.5% Upside
Previously C$2674.98 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$2673.14
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
34.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$3195.76
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2837.09 | C$2514.87 – C$3200.58 |
| 60 trading days | C$3011.09 | C$2539.10 – C$3570.81 |
| 90 trading days | C$3195.76 | C$2593.52 – C$3937.84 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 32.9000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 74.1100 | 39.8900 | +85.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
Investor takeaway: The calendar EPS beat is one positive data point, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Fairfax’s insurance and reinsurance operations remained profitable, gross premiums written increased, and book value per basic share rose from year-end. However, quarterly net earnings fell from a year earlier as investment losses weighed on results, and the combined ratio edged up. Investors should distinguish calendar EPS from reported diluted EPS and consider both underwriting performance and investment volatility. See the FFH.TO stock page for more company data.
US$74.11 calendar EPS versus US$39.89 estimated
The 85.8% surprise compares calendar EPS with the estimate. Fairfax separately reported diluted EPS of US$43.32 for the quarter, down from US$52.04 a year earlier. These figures come from different reporting data, so the estimate beat doesn’t mean reported earnings grew year over year.
Bull case
Fairfax’s insurance and reinsurance operations generated US$1.38 billion in adjusted operating income, up 2.4% from a year earlier. Underwriting profit was US$523.9 million, while gross premiums written rose 9.3% to US$8.94 billion. Book value per basic share reached US$1,349.15 on September 30, up from US$1,260.19 at the end of 2025. These results show continued operating strength despite swings in investment performance.
Bear case
Net earnings attributable to Fairfax shareholders fell 19.3% from a year earlier. The company recorded US$858.7 million in investment losses, compared with US$426.2 million in gains in the same quarter last year. Bonds accounted for US$827.7 million of the losses, mostly unrealized losses on U.S. Treasuries as interest rates rose. The undiscounted combined ratio increased to 92.5% from 92% a year earlier. Fairfax is also pursuing a proposed US$5.6 billion acquisition of a controlling stake in India’s IDBI Bank. Definitive agreements and regulatory approvals are still outstanding.
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