Fairfax Financial's latest earnings report highlights some significant challenges, as the company has fallen short of analyst expectations.
Recent earnings trend
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$47.59B
P/E
8.5x
Div. yield
0.61%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2678.15
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+3.37%
Beta
0.45
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 13.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2686.25
+13.8% Upside
Current Price
C$2360.58
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
21.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+18.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$2525.25
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2414.24 | C$2242.08 – C$2599.62 |
| 60 trading days | C$2469.12 | C$2223.84 – C$2741.45 |
| 90 trading days | C$2525.25 | C$2221.54 – C$2870.48 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 35.5316 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 61.6100 | 55.2200 | +11.6% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | 3.8000 | 26.4400 | -85.6% |
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (TSX: FFH) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 30, 2026, and the results were disappointing. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at $35.53, missing the expected $42.06 by -15.5%. This underperformance raises concerns about Fairfax's future in the competitive insurance market.
Investor takeaway: Investors should take a close look at Fairfax's key performance metrics, such as its combined ratio and net gains on investments, along with the wider market conditions affecting the insurance sector.
EPS Miss of 15.5% Reflects Operational Challenges
Fairfax's reported EPS of $35.53 falls significantly short of the consensus estimate of $42.06, indicating a troubling trend for the company's profitability in a tough market.
Bull case
Despite the recent earnings miss, Fairfax has a strong history of generating underwriting profits and maintaining a solid investment portfolio. The company continues to grow its gross premiums written and has a strong combined ratio, which could set the stage for a recovery.
Bear case
The notable EPS miss points to possible issues with Fairfax's operational efficiency, especially in a competitive landscape. If trends don't improve in the coming quarters, analysts may reassess their outlook for the company.
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Wealth Awesome
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This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
