In a disappointing earnings report, Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd fell short of expectations, revealing challenges in a softening insurance market.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (TSX: FFH) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) of $35.53, which is significantly below analyst estimates of $42.06. This 15.5% miss raises concerns about the company's performance amid a competitive and softening property insurance market.
Recent earnings trend
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$47.59B
P/E
8.2x
Div. yield
0.64%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2678.15
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
+1.01%
Beta
0.45
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 14.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2679.58
+14.1% Upside
Current Price
C$2347.56
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
21.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+24.4%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$2560.88
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2416.62 | C$2243.60 – C$2602.98 |
| 60 trading days | C$2487.71 | C$2239.61 – C$2763.29 |
| 90 trading days | C$2560.88 | C$2251.69 – C$2912.54 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | — | 33.4700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 61.6100 | 55.2200 | +11.6% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should carefully assess Fairfax's recent earnings miss in light of ongoing market challenges, particularly in North American property insurance, while considering the company's strong underwriting income and conservative investment strategy.
EPS Misses Estimates by 15.5%
Fairfax's EPS of $35.53 was well below the consensus estimate of $42.06, reflecting ongoing challenges in the competitive insurance landscape.
Bull case
Despite the earnings miss, Fairfax showed strong underwriting results with a combined ratio of 81.9%, indicating profitability in its core operations. The company is also focusing on optimizing its portfolio and maintaining a conservative investment approach, which could set it up for potential long-term growth.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss highlights underlying issues, especially in the North American property insurance market, which is facing pricing pressure. Investors may be concerned about the sustainability of Fairfax's profitability and the possibility of further declines in earnings.
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Wealth Awesome
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