Fairfax Financial's recent earnings report showed a significant miss on EPS estimates, raising concerns about its performance in a tough insurance market.
On July 29, 2026, Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd (TSX: FFH) announced its second-quarter earnings for the period ending June 30, 2026. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $35.53, which fell short of the consensus estimate of $42.06 by 15.5%. This marks a notable decline from the previous quarter and highlights ongoing challenges in the insurance sector.
Recent earnings trend
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$45.76B
P/E
7.6x
Div. yield
0.68%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2678.15
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
-0.68%
Beta
0.43
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Oct 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 23.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2723.39
+23.6% Upside
Previously C$2719.28 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$2203.31
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
19.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
20.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-38.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$1923.67
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2105.85 | C$1966.11 – C$2255.52 |
| 60 trading days | C$2012.70 | C$1826.45 – C$2217.95 |
| 90 trading days | C$1923.67 | C$1707.97 – C$2166.61 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | — | 33.4700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 61.6100 | 55.2200 | +11.6% |
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Investor takeaway: While Fairfax has strong underwriting income and an improved combined ratio, indicating operational strength, the significant EPS miss warrants caution, especially given the competitive pressures in the North American property insurance market.
EPS Miss of 15.5%
Fairfax's EPS of $35.53 compared to the estimate of $42.06 reflects a worrying trend, particularly considering the company had beaten estimates in two of the last four quarters.
Bull case
Fairfax continues to show strong underwriting results, with improvements in its combined ratio and solid reserve development. The company is strategically focusing on higher-margin business and international growth, which could help cushion it against pressures in the domestic market.
Bear case
The large EPS miss points to potential weaknesses in Fairfax's operations, especially in a softening North American property insurance market. The competitive landscape may continue to put downward pressure on margins, affecting future earnings.
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