Fairfax Financial's latest earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS estimates, raising questions about its operational efficiency in a softening market.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSX: FFH) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $35.53, which is 15.5% lower than expected. This shortfall occurs as the company faces a competitive insurance landscape, especially in North America.
Recent earnings trend
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$45.76B
P/E
7.6x
Div. yield
0.68%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2678.15
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
-0.68%
Beta
0.43
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH · as of Oct 2, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 23.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2723.39
+23.6% Upside
Previously C$2719.28 on Sep 30, 2026
Current Price
C$2203.31
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
19.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
20.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-38.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$1923.67
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2105.85 | C$1966.11 – C$2255.52 |
| 60 trading days | C$2012.70 | C$1826.45 – C$2217.95 |
| 90 trading days | C$1923.67 | C$1707.97 – C$2166.61 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | — | 33.4700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 61.6100 | 55.2200 | +11.6% |
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Investor takeaway: Despite Fairfax's solid long-term fundamentals, the recent earnings miss highlights challenges in maintaining profitability in a softening property insurance market. Investors should think about how these results might impact future growth and profitability.
EPS Miss: $35.53 vs. $42.06 Estimate
Fairfax's EPS of $35.53 for Q2 2026 is a 15.5% miss compared to analyst expectations, raising concerns about the company's near-term profitability.
Bull case
Fairfax has shown strong underwriting results and a commitment to disciplined portfolio management. The company reported $427 million in underwriting income for Q2 and an improved combined ratio, indicating operational resilience that could benefit long-term investors.
Bear case
The significant EPS miss raises concerns about the company's ability to navigate a challenging insurance environment. Competitive pressures are affecting premium growth, which could lead to continued volatility in earnings performance.
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