Fairfax Financial's latest earnings report shows a significant miss on EPS estimates, raising questions about its operational efficiency in a softening market.
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (TSX: FFH) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 29, 2026, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $35.53, which is 15.5% lower than expected. This shortfall occurs as the company faces a competitive insurance landscape, especially in North America.
Recent earnings trend
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Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
FFH.TO
FFH.TO
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$48.42B
P/E
8.2x
Div. yield
0.64%
Div. / share
$15.00
52W high
$2678.15
52W low
$2066.16
1W change
-1.70%
Beta
0.45
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FFH
Wall Street analysts forecast FFH stock price to rise 11.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$2670.65
+11.0% Upside
Current Price
C$2407.07
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FFH's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
22.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+35.6%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$2732.94
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$2511.13 | C$2325.58 – C$2711.48 |
| 60 trading days | C$2619.69 | C$2350.19 – C$2920.08 |
| 90 trading days | C$2732.94 | C$2392.70 – C$3121.56 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | — | 33.4700 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 35.5300 | 42.0600 | -15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | 31.1100 | 36.4500 | -14.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 57.5700 | 40.8600 | +40.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 52.0400 | 44.2900 | +17.5% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | 61.6100 | 55.2200 | +11.6% |
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Investor takeaway: Despite Fairfax's solid long-term fundamentals, the recent earnings miss highlights challenges in maintaining profitability in a softening property insurance market. Investors should think about how these results might impact future growth and profitability.
EPS Miss: $35.53 vs. $42.06 Estimate
Fairfax's EPS of $35.53 for Q2 2026 is a 15.5% miss compared to analyst expectations, raising concerns about the company's near-term profitability.
Bull case
Fairfax has shown strong underwriting results and a commitment to disciplined portfolio management. The company reported $427 million in underwriting income for Q2 and an improved combined ratio, indicating operational resilience that could benefit long-term investors.
Bear case
The significant EPS miss raises concerns about the company's ability to navigate a challenging insurance environment. Competitive pressures are affecting premium growth, which could lead to continued volatility in earnings performance.
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Wealth Awesome
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