First Quantum's latest earnings report reveals significant challenges despite operational improvements.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) recently reported its second-quarter 2026 earnings, showing a larger-than-expected loss that has raised concerns among investors. The company's earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.13 fell short of the estimated -$0.04, resulting in a surprise of -225.0%. This earnings miss continues a troubling trend, as First Quantum has not beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
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First Quantum Minerals Ltd
FM.TO
FM.TO
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$32.42B
52W high
$46.36
52W low
$22.21
1W change
+0.88%
Beta
2.00
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FM
Wall Street analysts forecast FM stock price to rise 24.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$48.41
+24.6% Upside
Current Price
C$38.86
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FM's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
57.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
60.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$46.46
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$41.24 | C$33.79 – C$50.35 |
| 60 trading days | C$43.77 | C$33.02 – C$58.04 |
| 90 trading days | C$46.46 | C$32.89 – C$65.62 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-27 | — | 0.2200 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | -0.1300 | -0.0400 | -225.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | -0.1800 | 0.0500 | -460.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | -85.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | -0.0200 | 0.0600 | -133.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | 0.0200 | -0.0400 | +150.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should approach First Quantum with caution. While the company has shown improvements in production and revenue, significant financial risks and a disappointing earnings report suggest that challenges remain.
Bull case
First Quantum has successfully increased copper production by 4% quarter-over-quarter and generated $1.5 billion in revenue, which is an 8% increase from the previous quarter. The recommissioning of Cobre Panamá and the processing of stockpiled ore are expected to boost future production and cash flow.
Bear case
Despite these production improvements, First Quantum's significant loss and rising operational costs, especially related to fuel and hedging losses, pose risks to profitability. The company's net debt has climbed to $5.4 billion, raising concerns about its financial stability.
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