First Quantum Minerals Ltd faced a significant earnings miss this quarter, with analysts surprised by a 225% negative deviation.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 27, 2026, showing a disappointing adjusted loss of $0.13 per share. This starkly contrasts with analysts' expectations of a loss of only $0.04, marking a staggering 225% miss. This continues a troubling trend for the company, which has not met EPS estimates in its last four quarters.
Recent earnings trend
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First Quantum Minerals Ltd
FM.TO
FM.TO
First Quantum Minerals Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$32.42B
52W high
$46.36
52W low
$22.21
1W change
+1.20%
Beta
2.00
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FM
Wall Street analysts forecast FM stock price to rise 24.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$48.45
+24.7% Upside
Current Price
C$38.86
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FM's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
57.8%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
60.2%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$46.46
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$41.24 | C$33.79 – C$50.35 |
| 60 trading days | C$43.77 | C$33.02 – C$58.04 |
| 90 trading days | C$46.46 | C$32.89 – C$65.62 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-27 | — | 0.2200 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-27 | -0.1300 | -0.0400 | -225.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | -0.1800 | 0.0500 | -460.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-10 | 0.0100 | 0.0700 | -85.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | -0.0200 | 0.0600 | -133.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-23 | 0.0200 | -0.0400 | +150.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should be cautious as First Quantum continues to struggle with profitability despite improvements in copper production and revenue. The significant earnings miss raises concerns about the company's operational efficiency and its ability to manage costs amid fluctuating copper prices.
EPS Misses by 225%
First Quantum's adjusted loss of $0.13 per share is significantly worse than the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.04, marking a troubling continuation of missed earnings expectations.
Bull case
On a positive note, First Quantum reported a 4% increase in copper production, reaching over 100,000 metric tons, and revenue rose 8% to $1.5 billion. The company has also started processing stockpiled ore at its Cobre Panamá site, which could boost future cash flow as operations normalize.
Bear case
However, the earnings miss highlights ongoing challenges, including rising net debt, increased production costs, and uncertainties about government approvals for full operations at Cobre Panamá. Additionally, the company's exposure to volatile spot copper prices after hedging could further impact its financial stability.
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