Franco-Nevada Corporation's latest earnings report reveals a significant miss on EPS expectations, despite a record revenue surge.
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV.TO) reported its Q2 2026 earnings on August 11, 2026, after market close, showing an EPS of $1.81. This fell short of the $1.97 consensus estimate by 8.1%. This miss contrasts with the company's previous strong performance, raising questions about its future trajectory in the competitive metals and mining sector.
Recent earnings trend
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Franco-Nevada Corporation
FNV.TO
FNV.TO
Franco-Nevada Corporation
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Market cap
$64.58B
P/E
33.8x
Div. yield
0.47%
Div. / share
$1.58
52W high
$386.76
52W low
$238.64
1W change
+3.73%
Beta
0.91
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering FNV
Wall Street analysts forecast FNV stock price to rise 15.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$381.85
+15.9% Upside
Current Price
C$329.39
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on FNV's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
35.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
37.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+25.4%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$360.72
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$339.52 | C$300.30 โ C$383.86 |
| 60 trading days | C$349.96 | C$294.19 โ C$416.30 |
| 90 trading days | C$360.72 | C$291.64 โ C$446.17 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | โ | 2.0800 | โ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-11 | 1.8100 | 1.9700 | -8.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-27 | 3.3270 | 2.0840 | +59.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-10 | 1.8500 | 1.6700 | +10.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 1.4300 | 1.3800 | +3.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-11 | 1.2400 | 1.1200 | +10.7% |
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Investor takeaway: Despite the earnings miss, Franco-Nevada's overall revenue growth and strong balance sheet suggest potential for long-term value. Investors should keep an eye on upcoming performance and market conditions, especially given the company's high P/E ratio compared to industry averages.
Record Revenue Growth of 57% Year-Over-Year
Franco-Nevada reported a remarkable 57% increase in revenue year-over-year, driven by rising precious metal and oil prices, despite the EPS miss.
Bull case
Franco-Nevada is in a solid financial position with $4.3 billion in available capital and a diverse asset portfolio, which sets it up well for future growth and acquisitions. The expected production increases in the second half of the year could lead to better earnings moving forward.
Bear case
However, the company's dependence on commodity prices for revenue and ongoing uncertainties regarding key projects, like Cobre Panama, pose significant risks. The recent earnings miss raises concerns about operational efficiency and market conditions that could affect future performance.
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