Gibson Energy’s third-quarter EPS came in 29.4% above the calendar estimate. The company also reported record adjusted EBITDA and higher distributable cash flow. Investors still need to weigh its growth plans against leverage and volatile marketing conditions.
Gibson Energy Inc. (TSX: GEI) reported results for the third quarter of 2026, ended September 30. The company released its results after market close on November 2. Calendar data shows EPS of C$0.44, compared with an estimate of C$0.34, a 29.4% beat. Gibson also reported record consolidated adjusted EBITDA of C$193 million and distributable cash flow of C$120 million. Here’s what the results mean for its infrastructure growth, dividend and risks. See the Gibson Energy stock page for more company data.
Recent earnings trend
Gibson Energy Inc.
GEI.TO
GEI.TO
Gibson Energy Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.50B
P/E
26.8x
Div. yield
5.48%
Div. / share
$1.78
52W high
$34.66
52W low
$21.89
1W change
-3.28%
Beta
0.57
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GEI · as of Nov 6, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast GEI stock price to rise 7.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$34.29
+7.6% Upside
Previously C$33.43 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$31.86
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GEI's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
24.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+9.3%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$32.94
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$32.22 | C$29.59 – C$35.08 |
| 60 trading days | C$32.58 | C$28.88 – C$36.74 |
| 90 trading days | C$32.94 | C$28.42 – C$38.17 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-16 | — | 0.3100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-01 | 0.4400 | 0.3400 | +29.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-26 | 0.3700 | 0.3000 | +23.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.3100 | 0.2800 | +10.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-17 | 0.3000 | 0.3000 | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | 0.2800 | 0.2900 | -3.4% |
Investor takeaway: Gibson delivered a clear EPS beat and record infrastructure and consolidated adjusted EBITDA. Its trailing payout ratio and leverage also improved. These results support the cash-flow case for its growth plans and dividend, but execution and market risks remain. Infrastructure leverage is still above 4x, and high tanker rates are limiting Gateway’s export opportunity. Investors should also avoid treating one strong quarter as a sign that marketing results will stay strong.
C$0.44 EPS, 29.4% above estimate
Calendar EPS of C$0.44 beat the C$0.34 estimate by C$0.10. Gibson has now beaten estimates in three of its last four reported quarters. The previous three comparable quarters also met or exceeded estimates. In its Q3 release, the company reported basic EPS of C$0.45. Calendar EPS and reported basic EPS are different measures and shouldn’t be confused.
Bull case
Infrastructure adjusted EBITDA reached a record C$177 million, up C$23 million from a year earlier. Chauvin, higher throughput and asset optimization contributed to the increase. Consolidated distributable cash flow rose to C$120 million from C$86 million a year earlier.
Gibson has put the Wink-to-Gateway integration into service and approved a Chauvin expansion. The project is expected to increase system capacity by about 50%, with service targeted for the first half of 2028. The quarterly dividend remains C$0.45 per share, and the trailing payout ratio fell to 82%.
Bear case
Gibson’s growth plans require more capital. Consolidated net debt to adjusted EBITDA is 3.9x, or 3.7x on a pro forma basis, while infrastructure leverage is 4.2x. Gateway’s export economics have weakened as high tanker rates push customers toward smaller vessels. Low inventories and steep backwardation also limit crude storage opportunities. Management expects marketing to slow seasonally in Q4.
The indicated dividend yield of 5.48% may appeal to income investors, but it doesn’t remove the risks tied to leverage, project delivery or volatile earnings.
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