Gran Tierra Energy reported a third-quarter loss of US$1.20 per share, far worse than the estimated loss of US$0.15. The company is also pursuing a major portfolio shift. Its proposed sale of operations in Colombia and Ecuador still needs remaining approvals and must meet closing conditions.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (TSX: GTE) reported third-quarter 2026 EPS of -US$1.20 for the period ended September 30, missing the calendar estimate of -US$0.15 by 700%. This was its second consecutive quarterly miss, following a second-quarter result that beat estimates. The company reported average working-interest production of 39,904 boe/d and US$141 million in cash at quarter-end, according to its results release. For Canadian investors, the loss comes as Gran Tierra proposes selling its Colombia and Ecuador businesses and refocusing on Canada and Azerbaijan. See the GTE stock page for company and share information.
Recent earnings trend
Gran Tierra Energy Inc
GTE.TO
GTE.TO
Gran Tierra Energy Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$467.37M
52W high
$16.71
52W low
$5.12
1W change
-16.55%
Beta
0.21
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering GTE · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast GTE stock price to rise 34.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$17.70
+34.0% Upside
Previously C$17.47 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$13.21
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on GTE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
45.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
76.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+4.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$13.41
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$13.28 | C$11.34 – C$15.53 |
| 60 trading days | C$13.34 | C$10.68 – C$16.66 |
| 90 trading days | C$13.41 | C$10.21 – C$17.60 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-03 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -1.2000 | -0.1500 | -700.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.7000 | 0.3400 | +105.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-08 | -3.3800 | -1.3200 | -156.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-03 | -4.0000 | -0.1600 | -2400.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | -0.7786 | 0.3000 | -359.5% |
Investor takeaway: The main headline is a steep EPS miss. But the information provided doesn’t include quarterly revenue or margins, so the earnings comparison alone doesn’t show the full picture. Gran Tierra has reported losses in three of the last four comparable quarters, with one beat. Its proposed sale of operations in Colombia and Ecuador still depends on outstanding conditions. Whether the deal closes and how the company’s portfolio changes are key developments to watch. The next-quarter EPS consensus is US$0.16, based on two analysts, down from US$0.51 30 days ago. The small analyst sample and lower estimate are worth keeping in mind.
US$1.20 loss per share
Gran Tierra reported third-quarter EPS of -US$1.20, compared with an estimate of -US$0.15. That’s a 700% negative surprise. The gap shows how far the result fell short, but it doesn’t explain why.
Bull case
Gran Tierra reported average working-interest production of 39,904 boe/d, including 12,852 boe/d in Canada, and had US$141 million in cash at quarter-end. If the proposed sale closes, the company could reshape its business around Canada and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijan agreement has been ratified. The shares are also above their 200-day moving average, though below their 50-day average. Analyst targets and the statistical forecast offer points of comparison, not guarantees of future performance.
Bear case
EPS of -US$1.20 was far below the -US$0.15 estimate. Gran Tierra’s reported trailing-twelve-month EPS is -US$10.86, and its profit margin is -40.01%. The company missed estimates in three of the last four comparable quarters. Its proposed asset sale has not closed, and the next-quarter EPS consensus has fallen over the past 30 days. The shares have also recently weakened, falling 16.55% in one week and 10.98% in one month, based on the supplied data.
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