Imperial Oil has once again shown its strength in a tough market, reporting impressive earnings that exceeded expectations.
On July 31, 2026, Imperial Oil Ltd (IMO.TO) announced its second-quarter earnings, revealing a significant earnings per share (EPS) of $4.52, which surpassed the consensus estimate of $4.17 by 8.39%. This is the third time in the last four quarters that the company has outperformed expectations, showcasing its strong operational performance despite fluctuating commodity prices.
Recent earnings trend
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Imperial Oil Ltd
IMO.TO
IMO.TO
Imperial Oil Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$87.89B
P/E
21.2x
Div. yield
1.76%
Div. / share
$3.18
52W high
$190.81
52W low
$111.57
1W change
+0.25%
Beta
0.82
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering IMO
Wall Street analysts forecast IMO stock price to fall 14.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BearishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$154.82
-14.8% Upside
Current Price
C$181.75
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on IMO's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
24.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
29.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+17.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$193.66
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$185.64 | C$170.79 – C$201.78 |
| 60 trading days | C$189.61 | C$168.52 – C$213.33 |
| 90 trading days | C$193.66 | C$167.62 – C$223.74 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 5 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-30 | — | 3.6400 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-31 | 4.5200 | 4.1700 | +8.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-01 | 1.9400 | 2.4000 | -19.2% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-01-30 | 1.9700 | 1.8900 | +4.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-31 | 2.1700 | 1.9600 | +10.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | 1.8600 | 1.6100 | +15.5% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should take note of Imperial Oil's solid earnings growth and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders, even with some challenges in production and refinery throughput. The company's strategic initiatives may position it well for future growth, making it a stock to keep an eye on in the energy sector.
Earnings Surprise of 8.39% Reflects Strong Operational Performance
Imperial Oil's net income jumped to $2.19 billion, up from $949 million year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to take advantage of favorable market conditions despite operational challenges.
Bull case
The strong financial results, driven by higher commodity prices and effective cost management, indicate that Imperial Oil is well-positioned to seize market opportunities. Plus, the company's focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks makes it an attractive option.
Bear case
However, there are concerns about the company's lowered guidance for downstream throughput and unplanned maintenance that could affect production. Investors should keep a close watch on these operational challenges.
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Wealth Awesome
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