Keyera Corp. has once again delivered strong financial results, surpassing expectations and showcasing resilience in the energy sector.
Keyera Corp. (TSX: KEY) reported its second-quarter earnings for the fiscal period ending June 30, 2026, revealing robust performance that outstripped analyst estimates. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35, exceeding the forecast of $0.26 by a notable 34.6%. This marks the third earnings beat in the last four quarters, emphasizing Keyera's strong operational execution amidst a challenging market environment.
Recent earnings trend
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Keyera Corp.
KEY.TO
KEY.TO
Keyera Corp.
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Market cap
$17.13B
P/E
72.3x
Div. yield
3.61%
Div. / share
$2.12
52W high
$61.41
52W low
$38.85
1W change
-4.11%
Beta
0.82
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering KEY
Wall Street analysts forecast KEY stock price to rise 12.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$64.36
+12.7% Upside
Current Price
C$57.11
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on KEY's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
25.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
28.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+26.3%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$62.74
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$58.93 | C$53.95 โ C$64.36 |
| 60 trading days | C$60.80 | C$53.67 โ C$68.89 |
| 90 trading days | C$62.74 | C$53.85 โ C$73.10 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-13 | โ | 0.6700 | โ |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 0.3500 | 0.2600 | +34.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-14 | 0.2000 | 0.1300 | +53.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-12 | 0.5500 | 0.4200 | +31.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-14 | 0.4000 | 0.5100 | -21.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.3500 | 0.4000 | -12.5% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should take note of Keyera's solid earnings performance and its strategic acquisitions, which are expected to drive future growth. The increase in quarterly dividends also reflects the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders, making it an attractive option for dividend-focused investors.
EPS Surprises by 34.6%
Keyera's EPS of $0.35 represents a significant increase, driven by strong performance in its fee-based segments and strategic acquisitions, despite challenges in its marketing operations.
Bull case
Keyera's strategic acquisitions, including the Canadian NGL business and full ownership of KAPS, position it well for future growth. The company is focusing on generating cash flow from fee-based operations and aims for sustainable dividend growth, which makes it an appealing choice in the energy sector.
Bear case
While Keyera has shown strong earnings, the volatility in the energy sector and potential operational challenges, such as the recent outage at the Alberta EnviroFuels facility, could impact future performance. Investors should keep these risks in mind when evaluating their positions.
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