Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp. reported third-quarter earnings of C$0.38 per share, beating the C$0.21 estimate by 81%. But the surprise came as profit fell from a year earlier, alongside weaker iron ore prices and lower sales volumes.
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corporation (TSX: LIF) released its results after the market closed on November 4, 2026. For the quarter ended September 30, earnings were C$0.38 per share, compared with the calendar estimate of C$0.21. The company beat estimates after missing them in each of the previous three comparable quarters. Still, earnings per share fell 18% year over year. Royalty revenue dropped 8% to $40.1 million as lower concentrate-for-sale and pellet volumes, softer iron ore prices, and higher shipping costs weighed on results.
Recent earnings trend
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp
LIF.TO
LIF.TO
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.37B
P/E
18.7x
Div. yield
5.68%
Div. / share
$1.25
52W high
$30.92
52W low
$19.67
1W change
+7.57%
Beta
0.80
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LIF · as of Oct 22, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast LIF stock price to fall 40.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BearishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$28.30
-40.3% Upside
Previously C$29.10 on Oct 16, 2026
Current Price
C$47.37
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LIF's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
42.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
29.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$17.96
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$20.23 | C$17.47 – C$23.43 |
| 60 trading days | C$19.06 | C$15.48 – C$23.46 |
| 90 trading days | C$17.96 | C$13.92 – C$23.16 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.2600 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3800 | 0.2100 | +81.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.1700 | 0.2100 | -19.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | 0.2100 | 0.4000 | -47.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | 0.3500 | 0.7300 | -52.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.4700 | 0.7100 | -33.8% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS beat is welcome, but the year-over-year results were weaker. Investors should consider the quarter-on-quarter recovery alongside lower royalty revenue and earnings, and keep an eye on iron ore demand, sales volumes, and realized prices. LIF.TO has a reported dividend yield of 5.68%, but these results don’t show whether future dividends are assured. See the LIF stock page for company data and coverage.
C$0.38 EPS, versus C$0.21 expected
The 81% earnings beat came despite an 18% year-over-year drop in third-quarter EPS. Royalty revenue fell 8% from a year earlier to $40.1 million, but rose 19% from the second quarter.
Bull case
EPS rose 123% from the second quarter, and adjusted cash flow increased 21% to $0.35 per share. Pellet premiums strengthened, including the premium for direct-reduction pellets, and the company reported a 47.56% profit margin. Results could improve from the recent quarterly level if sales volumes recover and stronger pellet premiums continue to offset pressure from benchmark iron ore prices and freight costs.
Bear case
The EPS beat followed three straight quarterly misses and came against a lower estimate. Earnings per share fell 18% year over year, royalty revenue declined 8%, and low concentrate-for-sale and pellet volumes continued to weigh on results. The 65% Fe index averaged US$113 per tonne, down 4% from a year earlier. Global supply remained strong, while Chinese steel production weakened. One analyst expects next-quarter EPS of C$0.41, below C$0.47 a year ago. With only one analyst covering the estimate, it offers a limited reference point, not a broad consensus.
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