Linamar’s normalized Q3 earnings came in below expectations, even as sales rose 21% and the company reported record new business wins in key markets.
Linamar Corporation (TSX: LNR), or LNR.TO, reported normalized earnings per share of C$2.59 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That was 3.4% below the C$2.68 consensus estimate, but 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Sales grew in both Mobility and Industrial. For investors in Canada, the quarter was a mixed one: revenue and cash flow were strong, but segment earnings softened amid tariff pressure and a cautious near-term outlook.
Recent earnings trend
Linamar Corporation
LNR.TO
LNR.TO
Linamar Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.06B
P/E
7.6x
Div. yield
0.99%
Div. / share
$0.87
52W high
$110.26
52W low
$73.36
1W change
-2.50%
Beta
1.33
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LNR · as of Oct 22, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast LNR stock price to rise 28.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$111.00
+28.6% Upside
Previously C$112.67 on Oct 20, 2026
Current Price
C$86.29
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LNR's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
28.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
33.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$72.18
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$81.30 | C$73.78 – C$89.59 |
| 60 trading days | C$76.61 | C$66.78 – C$87.88 |
| 90 trading days | C$72.18 | C$61.01 – C$85.40 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-03 | — | 2.2100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 2.5900 | 2.6800 | -3.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 3.0800 | 3.1200 | -1.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 3.2800 | 2.8100 | +16.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 2.2800 | 1.9900 | +14.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 2.5100 | 2.4100 | +4.1% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss was modest, but the results were mixed. Sales rose 21% to C$3.08 billion, and Linamar generated C$190.3 million in free cash flow. Normalized net earnings increased 2.3%. Industrial normalized operating earnings rose 5.8%, while Mobility’s fell 0.7% as shutdowns, demand and product mix weighed on results. Management kept its outlook for record sales and earnings in 2026. But the earnings-call summary points to possible Q4 pressure from seasonality, agriculture and tariffs. The supplied next-quarter consensus is C$2.92 per share, based on four analysts, with revenue consensus of C$2.94 billion.
C$2.59 normalized EPS, versus C$2.68 expected
The 3.4% miss came alongside 21% sales growth, to C$3.08 billion. Normalized EPS rose 3.2% year over year, while normalized net earnings increased 2.3% to C$153.5 million. Reported diluted EPS was C$2.51. The earnings-calendar comparison uses normalized EPS of C$2.59.
Bull case
Sales growth, record new business wins in Canada, the U.S. and China, and strong free cash flow point to continued business momentum. Management says more than 90% of sales are tariff-free, and Linamar ended the quarter with C$2.1 billion in liquidity. The company also renewed its normal course issuer bid, giving it room to keep returning capital alongside its quarterly C$0.32 dividend.
Bear case
Revenue growth did not lead to stronger earnings across both segments. Mobility faced extended customer shutdowns, weaker demand and an unfavourable product mix. Metal surcharge pass-throughs and foreign exchange increased sales but added little to earnings. Tariffs also weighed on Industrial results. Management expects Q4 pressure from tariffs, weakness in agriculture and seasonal factors. The shares closed at C$86.29, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That provides market context, but does not explain the earnings results.
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