Lundin Gold beat third-quarter earnings estimates by 7.5%, with record gold production and strong free cash flow. But the company expects production to ease in the fourth quarter.
Lundin Gold Inc. (TSX: LUG) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after the market closed on November 4. Calendar data shows earnings per share of $1.72, compared with an estimate of $1.60. That’s a 7.5% beat. The company separately reported US$1.21 in basic earnings per share and US$1.23 in adjusted earnings per share. These company-reported figures use different measures and shouldn’t be confused with the calendar EPS comparison. Fruta del Norte set a quarterly production record, and management said the company remains on track to meet its full-year guidance, despite expecting lower production in Q4.
Recent earnings trend
Lundin Gold Inc
LUG.TO
LUG.TO
Lundin Gold Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$23.79B
P/E
16.9x
Div. yield
4.42%
Div. / share
$4.24
52W high
$117.98
52W low
$70.39
1W change
+19.78%
Beta
1.41
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LUG · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast LUG stock price to fall 2.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
NeutralBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$96.20
-2.3% Upside
Previously C$96.55 on Oct 26, 2026
Current Price
C$98.46
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LUG's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
57.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
52.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+34.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$111.53
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$102.64 | C$84.32 – C$124.94 |
| 60 trading days | C$106.99 | C$81.02 – C$141.30 |
| 90 trading days | C$111.53 | C$79.34 – C$156.79 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 1.5100 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 1.7200 | 1.6000 | +7.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 1.1700 | 1.2500 | -6.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 1.5412 | 1.1900 | +29.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 1.3300 | 1.3500 | -1.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 1.2100 | 1.0600 | +14.2% |
Investor takeaway: The quarter brought record mine output, US$331 million in free cash flow and a declared dividend of US$1.14 per share. But gold sales were lower than production, and management expects Q4 output to ease as grades normalize after scheduled mill maintenance. Canadian investors should note that the dividend is declared in U.S. dollars. TSX shareholders will receive payment in Canadian dollars, converted at the prevailing exchange rate on the record date.
US$331 million
Lundin Gold generated US$331 million in free cash flow in the third quarter. Revenue was US$633 million, adjusted earnings were US$297 million, and free cash flow was US$1.37 per share. The declared US$1.14 dividend includes a fixed US$0.30 portion and a variable US$0.84 portion. See the Lundin Gold stock page for the full results and company background.
Bull case
Fruta del Norte produced 153,736 ounces of gold. Cash operating costs were US$862 per ounce sold, and all-in sustaining costs were US$1,037 per ounce. Lundin Gold generated US$377 million in operating cash flow and US$331 million in free cash flow, and ended the quarter with US$574 million in cash. The company declared a US$1.14-per-share dividend and said it returned US$264 million through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. It also expects to make an integrated investment decision on the FDN South project and mill expansion in Q4.
Bear case
The record quarter may not reflect production in the near term. Lundin Gold expects Q4 to be its lowest-production quarter of 2026, citing lower grades in the mine sequence and October mill maintenance. Gold sales have also lagged production year to date because of shipment timing. The company expects to sell most of the difference in Q4. Mediation over Ecuador’s sovereign adjustment calculation is likely to begin early next year, but there’s no firm timeline for a resolution. The variable dividend depends on normalized free cash flow and board discretion, so investors shouldn’t assume the latest payout will recur at the same level.
Analysis
Calendar data shows EPS of $1.72 against an estimate of $1.60, a 7.5% beat. Lundin Gold’s release separately reported US$1.21 in basic EPS and US$1.23 in adjusted EPS. These figures aren’t directly comparable: the calendar data and the company’s reported measures may use different definitions or data conventions. Revenue was US$633 million, up from US$447 million a year earlier, and adjusted earnings were US$297 million. Production reached 153,736 ounces, compared with 122,086 ounces in the same quarter last year. The company sold 148,326 ounces at an average realized price of US$4,299 per ounce. Follow the company’s results and stock information on its LUG.TO page.
Analysis
Operating cash flow was US$377 million, and free cash flow was US$331 million, or US$1.37 per share. Lundin Gold ended September with US$574 million in cash. The board declared a quarterly dividend of US$1.14 per share: US$0.30 fixed and US$0.84 variable. The company said it will pay the dividend on December 23 to shareholders of record on December 8. TSX shareholders will be paid in Canadian dollars, using the exchange rate on the record date. The variable portion is tied to normalized free cash flow and remains subject to board discretion.
Management said Lundin Gold remains on track to meet its 2026 production and cost guidance of 475,000 to 525,000 ounces. It also warned that Q4 production should be the year’s lowest as grades normalize and the mine completes scheduled mill maintenance. The supplied data shows a C$96.20 average analyst target, compared with a C$98.46 last close, implying 2.3% downside. The consensus label is Neutral, based on the target price relative to the share price. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the company’s analyst ratings.
Analysis
The supplied fundamentals snapshot lists a P/E ratio of 16.9, a profit margin of 46.32% and a dividend yield of 4.42%. These figures can change, and the yield depends on the share price and future dividend payments. The Wealth Awesome 90-day statistical price model estimates a mean of C$111.53. Its 68% range is C$79.34 to C$156.79, and its wider 95% range is C$56.44 to C$220.41. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a price target. See the LUG.TO price forecast for details.
Key uncertainties include Q4 grades and shipment timing, the unresolved Ecuador sovereign adjustment calculation, and whether planned expansion investment can support longer-term production. The company expects to make an integrated investment decision on FDN South and the mill expansion in Q4.
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