Lundin Mining’s third-quarter adjusted EPS beat estimates, but the company also missed revenue expectations and lowered its 2026 copper production outlook for Caserones.
Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX: LUN) reported its third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 4. Adjusted earnings were US$0.32 per share, 6.7% above the US$0.30 estimate. Revenue was US$1.109 billion, slightly below the US$1.12 billion consensus cited by Zacks. Record copper prices helped keep revenue above US$1 billion for another quarter. For Canadian investors, the results show strong cash generation and progress on growth projects, alongside operational challenges and a lower production forecast at Caserones.
Recent earnings trend
Lundin Mining Corporation
LUN.TO
LUN.TO
Lundin Mining Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$25.19B
P/E
13.6x
Div. yield
0.29%
Div. / share
$0.08
52W high
$45.63
52W low
$23.58
1W change
+2.39%
Beta
2.04
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LUN · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast LUN stock price to rise 44.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$42.85
+44.8% Upside
Previously C$42.79 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$29.59
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LUN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
66.6%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
55.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$24.75
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$27.88 | C$22.16 – C$35.08 |
| 60 trading days | C$26.27 | C$18.98 – C$36.36 |
| 90 trading days | C$24.75 | C$16.62 – C$36.85 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.3200 | 0.3000 | +6.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.3000 | 0.3500 | -14.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.3100 | 0.3100 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.8900 | 0.3200 | +178.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | +28.6% |
Investor takeaway: Lundin generated US$418 million in free cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with US$237 million in net cash. But severe winter weather at Caserones led management to cut its 2026 copper production guidance to 105,000–115,000 tonnes from 120,000–130,000 tonnes. The EPS beat reflects strong prices and financial performance, but it doesn’t remove the operational risks. Investors should weigh the high realized prices against production challenges that could affect output and costs. See the Lundin Mining stock page for company and share data.
US$0.32 adjusted EPS, versus US$0.30 expected
The 6.7% earnings beat came with US$1.109 billion in revenue and US$647.7 million in adjusted EBITDA. Revenue fell short of the cited analyst estimate, while a record realized copper price of US$6.85 per pound supported cash generation. The earnings result is best considered alongside the lower Caserones production guidance.
Bull case
Record copper prices, with a realized price of US$6.85 per pound, supported quarterly revenue of US$1.109 billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$647.7 million. Adjusted free cash flow from operations was US$317 million, and Lundin ended the quarter with net cash.
Candelaria’s copper production rose 13% from the second quarter, while Chapada recorded its highest quarterly copper and gold production of 2026. Lundin is also moving ahead with growth projects. Construction of an additional ball mill at Chapada is about 15% complete, with commissioning planned for late 2027. At Vicuña, the company reached infrastructure and permitting milestones ahead of a potential sanction decision before year-end.
Lundin repurchased about US$62.4 million of shares during the quarter and declared a dividend of C$0.0275 per share, payable December 21, 2026.
Bear case
Caserones is the main near-term operating concern. Heavy snowfall and strong winds caused two extended production stoppages during the quarter, prompting management to lower its 2026 copper guidance. Lundin says the affected production has been deferred, not lost, and expects operations to recover through 2027. That outlook depends on weather and execution.
Revenue also missed the cited consensus by 1.08%, despite the EPS beat. The supplied technical data is weak: LUN.TO’s last close of C$29.59 was below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the share price fell 12.79% over one month. Copper prices, mine performance and project execution remain key factors for investors to watch.
Analysis
Lundin reported adjusted earnings of US$276.5 million, or US$0.32 per share, compared with the US$0.30 estimate. That was a 6.7% positive surprise. Net earnings attributable to shareholders were US$228.9 million, or US$0.27 per share.
Revenue rose to US$1.109 billion from US$1.01 billion a year earlier, but missed the cited Zacks consensus by 1.08%. Adjusted EBITDA was US$647.7 million. Lundin’s realized copper price reached a record US$6.85 per pound, while its realized gold price was US$4,321 per ounce. The automatically inserted recent earnings trend table shows that Lundin beat estimates in two of its four most recent reported quarters, met them once and missed once.
Analysis
Cash from operating activities was US$531.6 million. Lundin reported US$418 million in free cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with US$237 million in net cash. Copper production was 62,610 tonnes, with a consolidated cash cost of US$2.01 per pound. Gold production was 36,763 ounces.
The main setback was at Caserones, where severe winter weather disrupted open-pit mining and caused two extended stoppages. Management cut 2026 copper production guidance to 105,000–115,000 tonnes from 120,000–130,000 tonnes. It described the affected production as deferred and expects a recovery through 2027. Candelaria and Chapada delivered stronger results than in the previous quarter. For more company information, visit the LUN.TO stock page.
Analysis
Construction of an additional ball mill at Chapada is about 15% complete and remains on schedule for commissioning in late 2027. At Vicuña, Lundin secured a long-term agreement with San Juan Province and approval to build the project’s high-voltage powerline. Management is working toward a sanction decision before year-end.
The board declared a quarterly dividend of C$0.0275 per share, payable December 21, 2026. The supplied analyst data shows an average target of C$42.85, compared with a last close of C$29.59, implying a 44.8% increase. Formal ratings aren’t available for Canadian listings, so the supplied bullish label is based on the target comparison. See the analyst targets section.
The Wealth Awesome 90-day statistical price model forecasts a mean price of C$24.75. Its 68% range is C$16.62–C$36.85, and its 95% range is C$11.17–C$54.87. This is a statistical model, not financial advice. The wide ranges reflect substantial uncertainty.
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