Lundin Mining Corporation's recent earnings report shows a surprising miss in earnings per share (EPS), raising questions about its operational performance amid external challenges.
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN.TO) reported its second quarter 2026 results on August 5, 2026, with an EPS of $0.30, falling short of the estimated $0.33. This 9.1% miss is notable, even though it’s an improvement from the $0.11 EPS reported in Q2 2025. The company generated $1.21 billion in revenue, slightly above expectations, but operational disruptions raise concerns about future performance.
Recent earnings trend
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Lundin Mining Corporation
LUN.TO
LUN.TO
Lundin Mining Corporation
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Market cap
$32.06B
P/E
17.0x
Div. yield
0.11%
Div. / share
$0.04
52W high
$45.67
52W low
$14.82
1W change
+8.50%
Beta
2.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering LUN
Wall Street analysts forecast LUN stock price to rise 10.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$41.61
+10.5% Upside
Current Price
C$37.66
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
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Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on LUN's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
51.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
60.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-11.9%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$36.10
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$37.13 | C$31.11 – C$44.32 |
| 60 trading days | C$36.61 | C$28.51 – C$47.02 |
| 90 trading days | C$36.10 | C$26.57 – C$49.04 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 7 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-05 | 0.3000 | 0.3300 | -9.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 0.3100 | 0.3100 | +0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.8900 | 0.3200 | +178.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | +28.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | 0.1100 | 0.1300 | -15.4% |
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Investor takeaway: While Lundin Mining's revenue growth is commendable, the EPS miss and ongoing challenges at the Caserones mine suggest that investors should stay alert. Keeping an eye on the company's recovery strategies and production guidance will be important in the coming months.
Bull case
Lundin Mining is benefiting from strong copper and gold prices, which have helped boost revenue. The company’s operational performance looks solid, with a positive production outlook and ongoing investments in growth projects like Vicuña, positioning it well for future gains.
Bear case
The recent earnings miss, along with operational disruptions at the Caserones mine due to severe weather, raises concerns about Lundin Mining's ability to meet its production targets. These ongoing challenges could affect investor sentiment and stock performance in the near term.
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