MDA Space reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of C$0.37, beating the C$0.29 estimate by 27.6%. Revenue rose 21.5% from a year earlier, and the company raised its 2026 outlook. But its shares have fallen recently.
MDA Space Ltd. (TSX: MDA) posted higher revenue and adjusted earnings in the third quarter, increased its cash balance and raised its full-year guidance. Adjusted diluted EPS of C$0.37 topped the calendar estimate of C$0.29. It was the company’s fourth consecutive comparable-quarter earnings beat. Still, the recent share price decline and a lower EPS forecast for next quarter suggest investors are weighing its growth against execution risks and expectations. See the MDA stock page for more company details.
Recent earnings trend
MDA Ltd
MDA.TO
MDA.TO
MDA Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.94B
P/E
44.2x
52W high
$67.90
52W low
$20.85
1W change
-10.65%
Beta
0.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MDA · as of Oct 21, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MDA stock price to rise 73.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$64.92
+73.2% Upside
Previously C$65.33 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$37.48
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MDA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
54.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
58.4%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$31.35
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$35.31 | C$29.31 – C$42.55 |
| 60 trading days | C$33.27 | C$25.57 – C$43.31 |
| 90 trading days | C$31.35 | C$22.70 – C$43.29 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.3700 | 0.2900 | +27.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 0.3600 | 0.3500 | +2.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.3800 | 0.3200 | +18.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.4500 | 0.4000 | +12.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-14 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.3800 | 0.3000 | +26.7% |
Investor takeaway: Revenue grew 21.5%, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.3%, and MDA raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Its C$3.9-billion backlog offers visibility into 2027 and beyond, and the company reported C$1.3 billion in net cash. But the backlog is down from C$4.4 billion a year ago, analysts have lowered their next-quarter EPS estimate, and the shares are below their 50- and 200-day moving averages. MDA’s growth depends on delivering projects and converting contract opportunities, while the share price reflects uncertainty.
C$0.37 adjusted EPS, 27.6% above estimate
MDA’s adjusted diluted EPS was C$0.37, C$0.08 above the C$0.29 calendar estimate. EPS rose 0.7% from a year earlier. Higher adjusted net income was partly offset by an increase in shares outstanding following equity offerings. MDA has beaten estimates in each of its last four comparable quarters.
Bull case
Revenue reached C$498.1 million, up 21.5% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15.9% to C$96.0 million, and adjusted net income increased 26.1% to C$60.4 million.
MDA raised its 2026 revenue outlook to C$1.90 billion–C$1.95 billion, from C$1.8 billion–C$1.9 billion. It also raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook to C$355 million–C$375 million, from C$330 million–C$370 million. The C$3.9-billion backlog, more than US$100 million in recent IRIS² antenna work under an authorization to proceed, and planned acquisitions of Blue Canyon Technologies and CLS could support further growth.
Bear case
The earnings beat doesn’t eliminate execution and valuation risks. MDA’s backlog stood at C$3.9 billion at quarter-end, down from C$4.4 billion a year earlier. The IRIS² authorization to proceed also isn’t a definitive contract for the full scope of work.
Analysts’ next-quarter EPS estimate fell from C$0.34 to C$0.31 over the past 30 days, with five downward revisions and none upward. The estimate is also below the year-ago figure of C$0.35. MDA shares closed at C$37.48, below their 50-day average of C$40.84 and 200-day average of C$44.55, after falling 12.8% in one month. Acquisitions, production ramp-up and converting contract opportunities into signed work add to the uncertainty.
Best next step
Keep exploring this topic
If you want to go deeper, these are the most useful follow-up pages and tools for this topic.
Broker comparison
Best trading platforms in Canada
Compare $0-commission brokers before you act on a ticker story.
Safe cash
Best GIC rates in Canada
If the story makes you want to de-risk, compare guaranteed rates next.
HISA roundup
Best high-interest savings accounts
Keep dry powder in a no-fee savings account instead of chequing.
TFSA room
Check TFSA contribution room
Shelter the next contribution before you buy.
Wealth Awesome
Timely coverage of Canadian stocks, earnings, dividends, and market movers for DIY investors. Stories are checked against exchange data and public filings.
View Full Profile →✅ Reviewed by Certified Financial Professionals
This content has been reviewed by CFA® charterholders and Certified Financial Planners (CFP®) with over a decade of experience in Canadian financial markets. All information is fact-checked against official Canadian sources and regulations.
Why these credentials matter: CFA® charterholders complete 900+ hours of rigorous study in investment analysis and ethics. CFP® professionals are held to the highest standards of financial planning competency and fiduciary duty in Canada.
⚠️ Professional Disclaimer
This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered personalized financial advice. While our team brings professional expertise, individual circumstances vary. For personalized guidance, consult with a qualified financial advisor, tax professional, or mortgage specialist.
