MDA Space reported adjusted diluted EPS of C$0.37 for Q3 2026, beating the C$0.29 estimate, and raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook.
MDA Space Ltd. (TSX: MDA) released its third-quarter results before markets opened on November 5, 2026. For the quarter ended September 30, adjusted diluted EPS was C$0.37, 27.6% above the C$0.29 estimate. Revenue rose 21.5% year over year to C$498.1 million, and the company raised its 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. The results were mixed: margins declined, while cash flow improved sharply during the quarter.
Recent earnings trend
MDA Ltd
MDA.TO
MDA.TO
MDA Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$6.51B
P/E
55.0x
52W high
$67.90
52W low
$20.85
1W change
+5.68%
Beta
0.11
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MDA · as of Oct 21, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MDA stock price to rise 61.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$64.92
+61.6% Upside
Previously C$65.33 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$40.16
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MDA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
58.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
57.9%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$33.59
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$37.84 | C$30.95 – C$46.26 |
| 60 trading days | C$35.65 | C$26.84 – C$47.36 |
| 90 trading days | C$33.59 | C$23.72 – C$47.57 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 4 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-03 | — | 0.3000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.3700 | 0.2900 | +27.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 0.3600 | 0.3500 | +2.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.3800 | 0.3200 | +18.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.4500 | 0.4000 | +12.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-14 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | +0.0% |
Investor takeaway: MDA’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew, its backlog stood at C$3.9 billion, and management raised its full-year guidance. But the earnings beat came with lower year-over-year margins, uneven cash flow over the first nine months, and delivery risks tied to major programs and launch schedules. See the MDA stock page for more coverage.
C$0.37 adjusted diluted EPS
MDA’s Q3 adjusted diluted EPS was 27.6% above the C$0.29 estimate and 0.7% higher than a year earlier. Revenue rose 21.5% to C$498.1 million, and adjusted net income increased 26.1% to C$60.4 million. The company has now beaten estimates in each of its last four reported comparable quarters. Still, the earnings beat doesn’t remove the need to watch margins and cash flow.
Bull case
Revenue rose 21.5% year over year to C$498.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased 15.9% to C$96.0 million. MDA raised its 2026 revenue outlook to C$1.90–C$1.95 billion and its adjusted EBITDA outlook to C$355–C$375 million. Its C$3.9-billion backlog provides visibility into 2027 and beyond. A recent authorization worth more than C$100 million for Europe’s IRIS² satellite program also adds to its potential work.
Bear case
Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.3% from 20.2% a year earlier, while gross margin declined to 25.3% from 26.4%. MDA cited program mix as one factor. Free cash flow was positive C$61.6 million in Q3 but remained negative C$116 million for the first nine months, reflecting working-capital normalization and higher capital spending. The company also flagged possible Telesat Lightspeed delays and uncertainty about launch capacity. Management said its financial forecast for the program was unchanged.
Analysis
MDA reported adjusted diluted EPS of C$0.37 for the quarter ended September 30, compared with the C$0.29 estimate. That’s a 27.6% positive surprise. EPS rose 0.7% year over year. The company said higher adjusted net income was partly offset by a higher average share count following its 2026 share offerings. Revenue reached C$498.1 million, up 21.5% year over year, as volumes increased in Satellite Systems and Geointelligence. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15.9% to C$96.0 million, and adjusted net income increased 26.1% to C$60.4 million. MDA also beat estimates in each of its last four reported comparable quarters.
Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to C$1.90–C$1.95 billion, from C$1.8–C$1.9 billion, and its adjusted EBITDA guidance to C$355–C$375 million, from C$330–C$370 million. Backlog was C$3.9 billion at quarter-end, compared with C$4.4 billion a year earlier and roughly in line with the previous quarter. MDA also highlighted an authorization worth more than C$100 million for digital antenna subsystems for 66 early-delivery satellites in Europe’s IRIS² constellation. The work is expected to enter backlog in Q4, though the definitive contract is still being finalized.
Analysis
Revenue growth didn’t lead to higher margins. Gross margin fell to 25.3% from 26.4% a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 19.3% from 20.2%. MDA attributed the pressure to program mix and higher SG&A investment. The quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin remained within the company’s full-year guidance range of 18%–20%.
Operating cash flow was C$106.2 million in Q3, up from C$32.8 million a year earlier. Free cash flow was C$61.6 million, compared with negative C$36.7 million. The improvement reflected a positive contribution from working capital and lower capital spending. But free cash flow for the first nine months was negative C$116 million, compared with positive C$185 million in the same period last year. MDA ended Q3 with C$1.328 billion in net cash and C$2.9 billion in total liquidity. The company said it would use cash to help fund its pending acquisitions of Blue Canyon Technologies and CLS.
Key execution risks include the Telesat Lightspeed schedule and access to launch capacity. Management said its financial forecast for Lightspeed was unchanged and reported progress on Pathfinder satellites and production work. It also noted that Telesat manages the overall schedule.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data shows an average target of C$64.92, compared with the last close of C$40.16. That implies 61.6% upside to the average target. The data describes the consensus as bullish based on the target comparison; a formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$33.59, with a 68% range of C$23.72–C$47.57 and a 95% range of C$16.75–C$67.36. This is a statistical model, not financial advice, and its wide ranges reflect substantial uncertainty. The model’s 30-, 60- and 90-day mean forecasts are C$37.84, C$35.65 and C$33.59, respectively. View the price-prediction section alongside the MDA stock page.
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