MDA Ltd continues to impress with its financial performance, beating earnings estimates for the third consecutive quarter.
MDA Ltd (TSX:MDA) reported its Q2 2026 earnings on August 7, 2026, revealing an EPS of 0.36, surpassing analyst expectations of 0.34. This 5.9% earnings surprise highlights the company's robust growth in the aerospace and defense sector, driven by strategic acquisitions and increased demand for satellite services.
Recent earnings trend
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MDA Ltd
MDA.TO
MDA.TO
MDA Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$6.70B
P/E
52.3x
52W high
$67.90
52W low
$20.85
1W change
-5.69%
Beta
0.19
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MDA · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast MDA stock price to rise 71.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$66.50
+71.3% Upside
Current Price
C$38.81
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MDA's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
44.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
62.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$32.46
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$36.57 | C$31.39 – C$42.60 |
| 60 trading days | C$34.45 | C$27.77 – C$42.75 |
| 90 trading days | C$32.46 | C$24.92 – C$42.29 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 9 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-13 | — | 0.3400 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-07 | 0.3600 | 0.3400 | +5.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.3800 | 0.3200 | +18.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-04 | 0.4500 | 0.4000 | +12.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-14 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 0.3800 | 0.3000 | +26.7% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should be encouraged by MDA's ability to consistently exceed earnings expectations, which reflects strong operational execution and a favorable market environment. However, the rising share price and high P/E ratio warrant careful consideration of valuation before making investment decisions.
0.36 EPS vs. 0.34 Estimate (+5.9% Surprise)
MDA has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, showcasing a strong operational performance amid a competitive landscape.
Bull case
MDA's recent acquisitions and growing backlog indicate strong revenue growth ahead, especially in defense contracts and satellite services. The company's strategic position in the expanding space sector boosts its long-term prospects.
Bear case
Even with the positive earnings surprise, MDA's high P/E ratio and the risks tied to its recent acquisitions raise concerns about valuation and execution. Investors should keep a close eye on cash flow trends.
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