Methanex Corporation's recent earnings report shows a notable miss on EPS estimates, even though the company experienced impressive revenue growth due to higher methanol prices.
On July 28, 2026, Methanex Corporation (MX.TO) announced its second-quarter earnings, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.87. This was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.01, resulting in a surprise of -3.49%. Despite this earnings miss, the company reported a strong year-over-year revenue increase, largely driven by high methanol prices amid supply disruptions.
Recent earnings trend
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Methanex Corporation
MX.TO
MX.TO
Methanex Corporation
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$5.94B
P/E
61.9x
52W high
$92.66
52W low
$43.85
1W change
-5.42%
Beta
0.87
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MX
Wall Street analysts forecast MX stock price to rise 18.7% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$91.69
+18.7% Upside
Current Price
C$77.26
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MX's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
49.7%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
49.0%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$64.63
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$72.80 | C$61.32 – C$86.41 |
| 60 trading days | C$68.59 | C$53.82 – C$87.41 |
| 90 trading days | C$64.63 | C$48.02 – C$86.97 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 8 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-28 | 3.8700 | 4.0100 | -3.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | 0.3000 | 0.4200 | -28.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-05 | -0.1400 | 0.6500 | -121.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.0600 | 0.4100 | -85.4% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.9700 | 0.2800 | +246.4% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-30 | 1.3000 | 1.3000 | +0.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should keep an eye on Methanex's ability to manage ongoing market volatility and how future earnings estimates might change based on recent performance. While the company’s solid revenue growth and production capabilities are promising, the earnings miss raises concerns about sustainability in the face of fluctuating methanol prices.
Q2 Earnings Miss by 3.5% with Adjusted EPS of $3.87
Methanex's revenue jumped 75.1% year-over-year to around $1.4 billion, despite falling short of earnings and revenue estimates.
Bull case
Methanex's strong revenue growth, supported by rising methanol prices and increased production capacity, positions it well for long-term success. The company has shown resilience in a tough market, and its strategic acquisitions have improved its operational capabilities.
Bear case
The recent earnings miss and ongoing market volatility could indicate potential challenges for Methanex. Investors might worry about the sustainability of high methanol prices and how asset impairments could affect future earnings.
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