MTY Food Group's latest earnings report reveals significant challenges as it falls short of analyst expectations.
On July 10, 2026, MTY Food Group Inc (MTY.TO) reported its second-quarter earnings, posting an adjusted EPS of C$0.97, which missed the consensus estimate of C$1.11 by 12.6%. This shortfall has raised concerns among investors as the company navigates a competitive landscape in the consumer discretionary sector.
Recent earnings trend
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MTY Food Group Inc
MTY.TO
MTY.TO
MTY Food Group Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$770.90M
P/E
5.0x
52W high
$45.08
52W low
$31.87
1W change
-10.83%
Beta
0.99
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering MTY
Wall Street analysts forecast MTY stock price to rise 36.8% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$46.17
+36.8% Upside
Current Price
C$33.75
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on MTY's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
43.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
30.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$28.23
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1ฯ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$31.80 | C$27.33 โ C$37.00 |
| 60 trading days | C$29.96 | C$24.19 โ C$37.11 |
| 90 trading days | C$28.23 | C$21.72 โ C$36.69 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ยฑ1ฯ, 95% band = ยฑ2ฯ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 2 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-07-10 | 0.9700 | 1.1100 | -12.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-10 | 0.9800 | 0.8300 | +18.1% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2026-02-19 | 1.8800 | 0.8300 | +126.5% |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-10-10 | 1.1900 | 1.2300 | -3.3% |
| 2025-05-31 | 2025-07-11 | 1.1700 | 1.2200 | -4.1% |
| 2025-02-28 | 2025-04-11 | 0.8700 | 0.8450 | +3.0% |
Investor takeaway: With a current market cap of C$770.9 million and a P/E ratio of just 5.01, MTY's valuation may seem attractive. However, the recent earnings miss and declining revenue growth projections could signal deeper issues that investors should watch closely.
C$0.97 EPS vs. C$1.11 Estimate
MTY's EPS of C$0.97 represents a 12.6% miss relative to analyst expectations, highlighting potential operational challenges.
Bull case
Even though MTY missed earnings expectations, the company has a solid track record, having beaten estimates in two of the last four quarters. Its diverse portfolio of restaurant brands could help it bounce back as the economy recovers.
Bear case
The significant drop in earnings and a projected revenue decline of 4.5% raise concerns about MTY's growth potential. With the stock price currently well below its 52-week high, investor confidence may be shaken, leading to further downward pressure.
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