NovaGold's recent earnings report shows a significant miss against expectations, raising questions about its operational strategy moving forward.
NovaGold Resources Inc (NG.TO) reported its third-quarter earnings on October 8, 2026, revealing a substantial loss that fell short of analyst expectations. The company reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.1141, missing the estimate of -$0.08 by 42.6%. This disappointing performance comes amidst ongoing developments in its flagship Donlin Gold project, which continues to be a focal point for the company’s future.
Recent earnings trend
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NovaGold Resources Inc
NG.TO
NG.TO
NovaGold Resources Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$3.98B
52W high
$19.69
52W low
$7.12
1W change
-2.95%
Beta
2.35
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering NG · as of Oct 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast NG stock price to rise 133.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$20.75
+133.4% Upside
Previously C$20.95 on Sep 29, 2026
Current Price
C$8.89
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on NG's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
52.1%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
74.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+27.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$9.82
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$9.19 | C$7.68 – C$11.00 |
| 60 trading days | C$9.50 | C$7.37 – C$12.25 |
| 90 trading days | C$9.82 | C$7.19 – C$13.41 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 2026-10-08 | -0.1141 | -0.0800 | -42.6% |
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-06-24 | -0.0900 | -0.0700 | -28.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | 2026-04-01 | -0.0600 | -0.0800 | +25.0% |
| 2025-11-30 | 2026-01-22 | -0.0414 | -0.0400 | -3.5% |
| 2025-08-31 | 2025-10-01 | -0.0600 | -0.0500 | -20.0% |
| 2025-05-31 | 2025-06-25 | -0.2100 | -0.0500 | -320.0% |
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Investor takeaway: Investors should closely monitor NovaGold's strategic decisions regarding the Donlin Gold project, as the company's financial health and operational expenditures may impact future performance. The current miss highlights the challenges faced in the development phase, but the long-term potential of the project remains significant.
EPS Misses by 42.6%: -$0.1141 vs. -$0.08 Estimate
This earnings miss reflects growing concern among analysts about NovaGold's operational expenditures and project timelines, which may affect investor confidence moving forward.
Bull case
The Donlin Gold project, once fully operational, is expected to be one of the largest gold mines in the U.S., with the potential to produce 1.3 million ounces annually in its early years. With a strong cash position of about $343.4 million, NovaGold is well-positioned to push forward with its development plans despite current losses.
Bear case
The significant earnings miss may indicate deeper issues within NovaGold's operational efficiency and project management. Rising expenditures and ongoing professional fees could impact the company's profitability, raising concerns about its ability to follow through on its ambitious plans for Donlin Gold.
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