Obsidian Energy reported third-quarter EPS of C$0.27, 48.1% below the C$0.52 estimate. Production averaged 28,113 boe/d, and adjusted funds flow was C$80.7 million.
Obsidian Energy Ltd. (TSX: OBE) reported results after market close on November 5 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Its calendar EPS of C$0.27 fell short of the C$0.52 estimate from one analyst. Results have been uneven: the company beat estimates in one of its last four reported quarters, with EPS ranging from a loss to a profit of C$0.62. Follow OBE.TO on the Obsidian Energy stock page.
Recent earnings trend
Obsidian Energy Ltd
OBE.TO
OBE.TO
Obsidian Energy Ltd
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$902.05M
P/E
31.9x
52W high
$19.83
52W low
$7.65
1W change
-16.96%
Beta
0.48
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering OBE · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast OBE stock price to rise 38.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$19.00
+38.6% Upside
Previously C$18.80 on Oct 19, 2026
Current Price
C$13.71
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on OBE's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
66.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
64.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-23.8%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$12.59
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$13.33 | C$10.58 – C$16.79 |
| 60 trading days | C$12.95 | C$9.35 – C$17.96 |
| 90 trading days | C$12.59 | C$8.44 – C$18.78 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.2700 | 0.5200 | -48.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.6200 | 0.3200 | +93.8% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | -0.2800 | 0.1500 | -286.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | -0.1800 | 0.0900 | -300.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | 0.2400 | 0.3800 | -36.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.2300 | 0.1700 | +35.3% |
Investor takeaway: The EPS miss is clear, but the available figures don’t include revenue or margins, so they don’t explain the shortfall. Company-release information shows production of 28,113 boe/d, adjusted funds flow of C$80.7 million, and quarter-end net debt of C$363.3 million. These figures add context but don’t change the earnings result. The recent earnings table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results, including one estimate beat in the last four quarters.
C$0.27 EPS versus C$0.52 estimated
That’s a 48.1% miss. The estimate came from one analyst, so it’s a reference point rather than a broad consensus. The available calendar data includes no revenue estimate or actual, so a revenue surprise can’t be assessed.
Bull case
Production and adjusted funds flow offer some operating context beyond the EPS miss. Analyst price targets also suggest potential upside from the latest close: the average target is C$19.00, compared with C$13.71, implying a 38.6% increase. Targets aren’t guarantees, and a formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings. See the analyst targets and ratings.
Bear case
The earnings miss follows uneven EPS results, and the shares closed below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. In September, the company cited weather-related delays and third-party facility downtime at Belly River. It said the affected production had been restored. Quarter-end net debt was C$363.3 million, making cash generation and debt management important to watch.
Analysis
For the quarter ended September 30, Obsidian Energy reported calendar EPS of C$0.27, compared with the C$0.52 estimate. The 48.1% shortfall is the main result, but the available earnings data includes neither reported revenue nor a revenue estimate. The estimate came from one analyst.
Recent EPS results have been uneven. Obsidian beat estimates in one of its last four quarters. In June, it reported C$0.62 against an estimate of C$0.32. In September, it reported C$0.27 against C$0.52. See the recent earnings table and chart for the full sequence.
Analysis
Company-release information shows average production of 28,113 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), adjusted funds flow of C$80.7 million, and quarter-end net debt of C$363.3 million. These figures help describe the company’s operating and financial position, but the available information doesn’t include prior-period comparisons or enough detail to explain the EPS miss.
In September, Obsidian revised its 2026 production guidance to 28,500–29,500 boe/d. It cited weather-related delays and third-party facility downtime at Belly River, and said the affected production had returned to about 2,400 boe/d. For more information, visit the OBE.TO stock page.
Analysis
The average analyst price target is C$19.00, compared with the latest close of C$13.71, implying 38.6% upside. The available data describes the consensus as bullish based on this comparison. A formal rating isn’t available for Canadian listings, and price targets are estimates, not promises.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model is not financial advice. It gives a mean forecast of C$12.59, with a 68% range of C$8.44–C$18.78 and a 95% range of C$5.66–C$28.02. The model’s annualized drift is -23.8%, and its 30-day volatility reading is 66.9%. These wide ranges show the uncertainty; they don’t predict a specific outcome. See the analyst section and Wealth Awesome price forecast.
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