A headline published October 22 says O’Reilly Automotive could be 25% overvalued based on cash flow. But the supplied information doesn’t include the analysis behind that estimate.
The headline is a third-party valuation opinion. It doesn’t identify the author, explain the method, or provide the cash-flow figures used. O’Reilly’s latest supplied close was US$90.59, with trading volume below its 20-day average.
Investor takeaway: The 25% figure is an attributed opinion. The available information isn’t enough to assess how it was calculated.
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O’Reilly Automotive Inc
ORLY.US
ORLY.US
O’Reilly Automotive Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$72.82B
P/E
28.6x
52W high
$102.46
52W low
$82.59
1W change
+2.90%
Beta
0.54
Analyst Price Targets
Based on 29 analysts covering ORLY · as of Oct 21, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast ORLY stock price to rise 20.4% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Buy4.41 / 5.00
Avg. Target
C$107.38
+20.4% Upside
Previously C$107.35 on Oct 5, 2026
Current Price
C$89.20
Last close
Analyst Breakdown (29 analysts)
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on ORLY's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
20.2%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
28.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-9.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$86.32
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$88.23 | C$82.28 – C$94.61 |
| 60 trading days | C$87.27 | C$79.07 – C$96.33 |
| 90 trading days | C$86.32 | C$76.49 – C$97.42 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
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The headline’s 25% cash-flow overvaluation estimate
The 25% figure comes from the headline. The supplied data doesn’t include enough information to verify it independently.
Bull case
The supplied fundamentals include a 14.3% profit margin and a 58.6% return on equity.
Bear case
The October 22 headline raises a concern about O’Reilly’s valuation based on cash flow, but the supporting figures and assumptions aren’t available.
What happened: a 25% cash-flow valuation claim
The October 22 headline says O’Reilly Automotive could be 25% overvalued based on cash flow. The supplied information doesn’t name the source or include the valuation model, cash-flow forecast, or assumptions behind the estimate. Treat it as a third-party opinion, not a company announcement or a verified measure of the stock’s value.
Other supplied headlines cover expected earnings growth, an automotive symposium, and Genuine Parts’ results. They don’t explain this valuation claim.
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What the numbers show
O’Reilly’s latest supplied close was US$90.59, down 0.91% for the day. The stock was up 2.90% over one week and 7.63% over one month, while its year-to-date change was -1.26%.
Latest volume was 470,795 shares, compared with a 20-day average of 4,977,170. The supplied volume comparison was 0.86x. The figures also list the close at US$87.41 relative to the 50-day moving average and US$90.65 relative to the 200-day average. The listed P/E was 28.5778, market capitalization was about US$72.8 billion, profit margin was 14.3%, and return on equity was 58.6%.
These figures provide context, but they don’t verify the cash-flow estimate. See more company data on the O’Reilly Automotive stock page.
What to watch next: the missing valuation details
The main unanswered question is how the headline’s 25% estimate was calculated. The supplied information doesn’t include cash-flow forecasts, a valuation period, or the assumptions needed to compare the claim with O’Reilly’s reported financial performance.
Investors following the story can look for the original analysis or company disclosures that shed light on cash generation. The supplied analyst-target figures are separate from the cash-flow headline and don’t explain its method. More listed data is available on the ORLY stock page.
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