Pan American Silver earned US$0.69 per adjusted share in Q3, beating the US$0.66 estimate. But revenue fell short, and production guidance added pressure.
Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX: PAAS) reported third-quarter 2026 results after markets closed on November 4. Adjusted earnings rose to US$0.69 per share from US$0.48 a year earlier, beating the US$0.66 consensus estimate by 4.55%. Revenue increased 17.7% year over year to US$1.01 billion, below the US$1.03 billion estimate. For Canadian investors, the quarter brought strong cash flow and shareholder returns, but weaker-than-expected silver production and a cut to gold guidance.
Recent earnings trend
Pan American Silver Corp
PAAS.TO
PAAS.TO
Pan American Silver Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$23.99B
P/E
11.0x
Div. yield
1.20%
Div. / share
$0.68
52W high
$94.49
52W low
$49.89
1W change
+9.81%
Beta
1.61
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering PAAS · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast PAAS stock price to rise 58.2% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$92.07
+58.2% Upside
Previously C$91.01 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$58.19
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on PAAS's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
51.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
52.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$48.67
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$54.83 | C$45.94 – C$65.43 |
| 60 trading days | C$51.66 | C$40.23 – C$66.34 |
| 90 trading days | C$48.67 | C$35.83 – C$66.12 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 4 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-24 | — | 0.8000 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | 0.6900 | 0.6600 | +4.5% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-12 | 0.7300 | 0.8700 | -16.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 1.0900 | 1.0600 | +2.8% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-18 | 1.1100 | 0.8900 | +24.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-12 | 0.4800 | 0.4900 | -2.0% |
Investor takeaway: PAAS.TO delivered an earnings beat, but operations were mixed. Silver production missed analyst expectations, and the company expects full-year output near the low end of its guidance. It also lowered gold production guidance and raised gold cost guidance. Strong free cash flow, liquidity and shareholder returns helped offset those concerns. You can review the PAAS stock page, including its analyst ratings and price forecast.
US$0.69 adjusted EPS, against US$0.66 expected
Adjusted earnings per share beat estimates by 4.55%, while revenue of US$1.01 billion came in 2.34% below consensus. Silver production also missed analyst expectations. The company generated US$377 million in attributable free cash flow and returned US$300 million to shareholders during the quarter.
Bull case
Pan American generated US$377 million in attributable free cash flow in Q3 and US$1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026. It returned US$300 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, and reported US$3.4 billion in available liquidity.
Silver-segment all-in sustaining costs were US$11.21 per ounce, better than the company’s quarterly outlook. Pan American expects full-year silver costs to land near the low end of its guidance. It also pointed to growth projects at La Colorada, Jacobina and Timmins as ways to improve production and costs over time.
Bear case
Operational setbacks took some shine off the earnings beat. Attributable silver production was 6.07 million ounces, below analysts’ estimate of 6.38 million. Pan American expects full-year silver production near the low end of its 25-million-to-27-million-ounce range.
The company cut gold production guidance to 660,000–680,000 ounces and raised gold-segment AISC guidance to US$2,000–US$2,150 per ounce. Repairs to the Huaron mill are expected to affect Q4 output, while remediation work at Jacobina is also weighing on production. Escobal remains suspended, with no restart timeline, according to the company news provided.
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