Pbo Says Build Canada Homes Will Add Only Small Increase to Housing Supply

Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks to construction workers as he tours a housing development in Ottawa on Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby (Spencer Colby)

OTTAWA — A new analysis from the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) suggests Ottawa’s recently launched Build Canada Homes program will provide only a modest boost to the country’s housing supply over the next five years.

The federal government created Build Canada Homes in September, giving the agency $13 billion in initial funding to support loans, financing, and land purchases aimed at expanding Canada’s stock of affordable housing.

According to the PBO’s report released Tuesday, the program is expected to add 26,000 new homes nationwide between now and 2030. Roughly half of those units would qualify as affordable housing for low-income Canadians.

Despite the investment, the PBO notes the agency’s output represents only a 2.1% increase from its baseline projection for new housing construction over that period. It also accounts for just 3.7% of the approximately 690,000 units the PBO estimates are required over the next decade to restore housing affordability.

The Liberal government has pledged to double the national rate of homebuilding, but the PBO says Ottawa has yet to release a detailed roadmap explaining how it plans to achieve that target.

The report also warns that overall federal spending on housing is set to decrease by 56% over the next three years unless existing programs receive renewed funding. While Build Canada Homes introduces new financial support, the PBO says it only partially offsets other housing initiatives scheduled to expire or not yet publicly renewed.

Among those programs is the $4.4-billion Housing Accelerator Fund, a key plank of the Liberals’ national housing strategy administered through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The fund currently has commitments stretching to 2028, but several other CMHC programs lack future funding clarity.

Interim PBO Jason Jacques told the Senate national finance committee on Tuesday that the government did not respond to questions about which housing programs may be reduced or phased out due to broader public service spending cuts.

“If not addressed, the public data suggests we are headed toward a substantial decline in federal housing spending,” Jacques said.

Housing Minister Gregor Robertson did not respond to reporters’ questions about the projections as he arrived at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.

Conclusion

The PBO’s findings highlight the significant gap between federal ambitions and the scale of Canada’s housing crisis. While Build Canada Homes represents a meaningful step, its projected impact falls far short of what is required to restore affordability nationwide. Unless Ottawa renews key programs and releases a clearer, fully funded plan to boost construction, Canada may see housing supply challenges intensify in the years ahead.