Polaris Renewable Energy reported a US$7.2 million third-quarter loss after recording an impairment charge, pushing earnings per share (EPS) well below the calendar estimate.
Polaris Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PIF) reported a loss of US$0.34 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, compared with the calendar estimate of a US$0.01 loss. The reported miss was 3,300%, though that figure is amplified because the estimate was close to zero. Most of the loss came from a non-cash US$8.3 million impairment charge. For Canadian investors, revenue held steady while production softened, and the company made progress on battery-storage and development projects in Puerto Rico and Mexico.
Recent earnings trend
Polaris Infrastructure Inc
PIF.TO
PIF.TO
Polaris Infrastructure Inc
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$289.40M
P/E
53.3x
Div. yield
1.11%
Div. / share
$0.15
52W high
$15.86
52W low
$11.02
1W change
+2.37%
Beta
0.42
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering PIF · as of Nov 9, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast PIF stock price to rise 89.5% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$26.24
+89.5% Upside
Previously C$25.34 on Nov 6, 2026
Current Price
C$13.85
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on PIF's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
18.3%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
20.6%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-35.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$12.21
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$13.28 | C$12.47 – C$14.15 |
| 60 trading days | C$12.74 | C$11.65 – C$13.92 |
| 90 trading days | C$12.21 | C$10.95 – C$13.62 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-25 | — | 0.1700 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -0.3400 | -0.0100 | -3300.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | -0.0400 | 0.0300 | -233.3% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | -0.0300 | 0.1700 | -117.6% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.2800 | 0.0800 | +250.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | -0.0200 | 0.0800 | -125.0% |
Investor takeaway: The large EPS miss was mainly due to a non-cash impairment, not a comparable drop in sales. Revenue was nearly flat year over year, while production and adjusted EBITDA declined modestly. Investors should consider those operating results alongside the impairment and watch for progress on the Puerto Rico storage project and the Mexican projects as they move toward construction and financial close. See the PIF stock page for company and market data.
US$8.3 million
The non-cash impairment charge was the main reason Polaris reported a US$7.2 million net loss, or US$0.34 per share. In the same quarter last year, the company reported a loss of US$0.02 per share. Revenue was US$19.0 million, compared with US$19.04 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA fell to US$12.3 million from US$12.8 million. The earnings miss is best understood alongside the impairment and the smaller declines in production and adjusted EBITDA.
Bull case
Quarterly revenue was US$19.0 million, about the same as a year earlier, and Polaris ended the quarter with US$99.1 million in cash, including restricted cash. Its development pipeline includes a 35.7 MW, eight-hour battery system in Puerto Rico and three projects in Mexico, with about 250 MWdc of solar capacity and 61.6 MW / 192 MWh of storage. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.15 per share, payable November 20 to shareholders of record November 12.
Bear case
Production fell 3% year over year to 175,791 MWh, and adjusted EBITDA declined to US$12.3 million from US$12.8 million. The net loss attributable to shareholders widened to US$7.2 million from US$0.3 million, mostly because of the impairment. The development projects still need further agreements, financing and execution. Planned capital spending is substantial, and the dividend remains subject to the board’s discretion and the company’s cash needs.
Analysis
Polaris reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of US$7.2 million, or US$0.34 per share, for the three months ended September 30. The calendar estimate was a loss of US$0.01 per share, resulting in a reported negative surprise of 3,300%. Since the estimate was close to zero, that percentage makes the gap look especially large. The per-share figures offer a clearer view of the result.
The company said the loss was mainly due to US$8.3 million in non-cash impairment charges. In the same quarter last year, Polaris reported a US$0.3 million net loss, or US$0.02 per share. The result continues a recent pattern of missing estimates: Polaris beat estimates in one of its last four comparable reported quarters. The automatically inserted earnings trend table and chart show the results by quarter.
Analysis
Quarterly revenue was US$19.005 million, nearly unchanged from US$19.037 million a year earlier. Consolidated energy production fell 3% to 175,791 MWh from 181,235 MWh. Lower generation in the Dominican Republic and at hydroelectric facilities in Peru and Ecuador was partly offset by stronger wind generation in Puerto Rico.
Management said higher power purchase agreement prices in Peru and a more favourable generation mix helped keep revenue steady despite lower output. Adjusted EBITDA declined to US$12.338 million from US$12.781 million. Operating cash flow was US$12.141 million for the quarter and US$27.2 million for the first nine months of 2026. At the end of September, Polaris had US$99.1 million in cash, including US$8.7 million of restricted cash.
Analysis
Polaris is moving ahead with a battery-storage project in Puerto Rico under a 20-year agreement that includes fixed and performance-based payments. The planned system will have 35.7 MW of capacity and an eight-hour duration. Gross capital expenditures are estimated at US$55 million to US$60 million, subject to final costs.
In Mexico, three selected projects combine about 250 MWdc of solar generation with 61.6 MW / 192 MWh of storage. Estimated capital expenditures are about US$250 million. Definitive agreements, including power purchase agreements, still need to be finalized before financial close and construction.
The board declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.15 per share, payable November 20 to shareholders of record November 12. The dividend is not guaranteed to continue or increase.
Investors can review the analyst price targets. The average target is C$26.24, compared with a last close of C$13.85, an implied difference of 89.5%. Formal ratings are unavailable for this Canadian listing. The Wealth Awesome price forecast is based on a statistical model, not investment advice. Its 90-day mean is C$12.21, with a 68% range of C$10.95 to C$13.62 and a 95% range of C$9.82 to C$15.19. These targets and estimates are not guarantees. See the PIF stock page for more company information.
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