Saturn Oil & Gas reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss per share, extending a run of earnings misses and putting its execution and debt management under scrutiny.
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc. (TSX: SOIL) reported results for the fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, after markets closed on November 4. Its loss per share was C$0.27, compared with analysts’ estimate of C$0.19—a 42.1% miss. It has missed estimates in three of its last four comparable quarters. Here’s what the result means for Canadian investors, along with the analyst target and Wealth Awesome’s statistical price model.
Recent earnings trend
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.
SOIL.TO
SOIL.TO
Saturn Oil & Gas Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$1.32B
52W high
$9.90
52W low
$2.23
1W change
-21.59%
Beta
0.32
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SOIL · as of Oct 26, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SOIL stock price to rise 53.3% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$11.36
+53.3% Upside
Previously C$11.14 on Oct 22, 2026
Current Price
C$7.41
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SOIL's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
68.5%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
59.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$8.86
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$7.86 | C$6.21 – C$9.96 |
| 60 trading days | C$8.35 | C$5.98 – C$11.66 |
| 90 trading days | C$8.86 | C$5.88 – C$13.34 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 2 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-03-10 | — | 0.7500 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-04 | -0.2700 | -0.1900 | -42.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.5700 | 0.6900 | -17.4% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | -0.5300 | -0.3800 | -39.5% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-11 | 0.1600 | 0.0300 | +433.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 0.0200 | 0.1400 | -85.7% |
Investor takeaway: SOIL’s C$0.27-per-share loss was wider than the C$0.19 analysts expected. The supplied results don’t include quarterly revenue or margin figures, so the EPS miss alone doesn’t explain what drove the loss. Investors should consider the earnings record alongside the company’s debt and the uncertainty around oil prices and acquisition-led growth.
EPS: -C$0.27 vs. -C$0.19 estimate
Saturn’s loss per share was C$0.08 wider than expected, a negative surprise of 42.1%. The company also missed estimates by 17.4% in June and 39.5% in March, after beating estimates in December.
Bull case
Saturn produces light oil in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Its acquisition-led strategy could grow its production base. The average analyst target of C$11.36 is well above the last close of C$7.41 in the supplied data. But that target is an estimate, not a promise, and depends on Saturn meeting its operating and financial plans.
Bear case
Saturn’s latest loss was larger than expected, and it has missed earnings estimates in three of its last four comparable quarters. A supplied news report put net debt at C$695 million and leverage at 1.3 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA. That debt leaves the company exposed to weaker oil prices, higher financing costs, or challenges funding growth. The fundamentals snapshot also shows negative trailing EPS and a negative profit margin.
Analysis
Saturn reported EPS of -C$0.27 for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, compared with the calendar estimate of -C$0.19. That’s a negative surprise of 42.1%. The company released its results after markets closed on November 4.
The supplied earnings data doesn’t include quarterly revenue, production, or margin figures, so it doesn’t show what drove the loss or how operations performed. The fundamentals snapshot lists trailing EPS of -C$0.05 and a profit margin of -0.75%. See the Saturn Oil & Gas stock page for more company information.
Analysis
Saturn’s recent earnings record is mixed. It missed estimates by 17.4% in the June 2026 quarter and 39.5% in March, after beating the December 2025 estimate by 433.3%. It has beaten estimates in one of its last four reported quarters. The recent earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
The pattern is worth watching, but EPS surprises alone don’t show whether production, realized prices, costs, financing, or other factors drove the results. A supplied news report cited C$695 million in net debt and leverage of 1.3 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA. That makes cash generation and debt reduction important to track alongside production growth.
Analysis
The supplied analyst data gives Saturn an average target of C$11.36, compared with a last close of C$7.41. That implies 53.3% upside to the average target. The data labels the consensus bullish based on the target compared with the last close. A formal rating isn’t available for this Canadian listing.
Analyst targets are estimates, not guarantees. They can change as results, oil prices, and assumptions shift. See the analyst target details.
Analysis
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$8.86. Its 68% range is C$5.88 to C$13.34, and its 95% range is C$3.91 to C$20.09. The model’s mean forecasts for 30, 60, and 90 days are C$7.86, C$8.35, and C$8.86, respectively.
The wide ranges and stated 68.5% 30-day volatility show how uncertain the estimate is. This is a statistical model, not financial advice or a guarantee of returns. View the Wealth Awesome price forecast.
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