Stella-Jones reported higher sales in the third quarter, but lower margins and restructuring costs pushed adjusted EPS below estimates for the fourth quarter in a row.
Stella-Jones Inc. (TSX: SJ) reported results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Adjusted EPS was C$1.39, 15.8% below the C$1.65 estimate. Sales rose to C$979 million from C$958 million a year earlier. But adjusted EBITDA fell to C$159 million from C$171 million, and its margin narrowed to 16.2% from 17.8%. The company cited higher fuel costs and product mix. Asset impairment and restructuring costs of C$32 million also weighed on operating income. For Canadian investors, the key question is whether planned efficiencies can lift margins while infrastructure demand supports sales.
Recent earnings trend
Stella-Jones Inc.
SJ.TO
SJ.TO
Stella-Jones Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$3.65B
P/E
14.2x
Div. yield
1.94%
Div. / share
$1.30
52W high
$100.01
52W low
$58.37
1W change
-7.57%
Beta
0.23
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SJ · as of Oct 29, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SJ stock price to rise 37.1% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$84.89
+37.1% Upside
Previously C$85.44 on Oct 22, 2026
Current Price
C$61.92
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SJ's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
31.4%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
27.1%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-50.0%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$51.79
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$58.34 | C$52.36 – C$65.01 |
| 60 trading days | C$54.97 | C$47.17 – C$64.07 |
| 90 trading days | C$51.79 | C$42.94 – C$62.48 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 6 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-03 | 1.3900 | 1.6500 | -15.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | 1.5900 | 1.8400 | -13.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | 1.1200 | 1.1800 | -5.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-26 | 0.9100 | 1.0200 | -10.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | 1.5900 | 1.5600 | +1.9% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | 1.9100 | 1.7800 | +7.3% |
Investor takeaway: Sales grew, but profitability weakened and adjusted EPS missed estimates for the fourth consecutive reported quarter. Management’s new Performance Optimization Program includes existing network initiatives and targets up to C$100 million in cumulative cost savings and added profitability over three years. That’s a target, not a guarantee. You can follow SJ.TO’s results and valuation on the Stella-Jones stock page.
C$1.39 adjusted EPS, versus C$1.65 estimated
The 15.8% earnings shortfall came as sales grew 2.2% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA fell, and its margin dropped 1.6 percentage points. The next test is whether the company can turn its cost-saving plans into lasting margin gains.
Bull case
Utility-pole volumes continued to grow, and management reported solid demand across infrastructure markets. Quarterly cash flow was C$158 million, and the company had C$836 million in available liquidity to support operational changes. It is targeting up to C$100 million in cumulative savings over three years, while pursuing higher-margin railway-tie business and expanding its steel-structures footprint. The company also approved a normal course issuer bid that allows it to repurchase up to 1.5 million shares over 12 months, at management’s discretion.
Bear case
The earnings miss marks a fourth straight quarter below estimates. Gross margin fell to 17.2% from 19.6%, while adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 16.2% from 17.8%. Management expects the 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin to remain below its 17.5%–18.5% target range. Fuel costs, product mix and execution of the savings program remain uncertain. The savings outlook also depends on implementation, demand, volumes, pricing and other assumptions. Shares closed at C$61.92, below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and fell 7.53% that day, according to the supplied market data.
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