Supremex reported quarterly earnings per share of C$0.02, below the C$0.06 estimate. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose, while net earnings fell sharply compared with a year-earlier quarter that included one-time gains.
Supremex Inc. (TSX: SXP) released results before markets opened on November 5 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. Calendar data showed EPS of C$0.02, 66.7% below the C$0.06 estimate. The company beat estimates in just one of its last four reported quarters. For Canadian investors, though, the EPS miss is only part of the story: supplemental results show higher revenue and adjusted EBITDA, while net earnings faced a tough comparison with the prior year.
Recent earnings trend
Supremex Inc.
SXP.TO
SXP.TO
Supremex Inc.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$83.01M
P/E
7.2x
52W high
$3.79
52W low
$2.88
1W change
+9.03%
Beta
0.67
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering SXP · as of Sep 17, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast SXP stock price to rise 47.9% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$5.00
+47.9% Upside
Current Price
C$3.38
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on SXP's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
50.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
31.3%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-39.1%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$2.94
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$3.23 | C$2.71 – C$3.83 |
| 60 trading days | C$3.08 | C$2.41 – C$3.93 |
| 90 trading days | C$2.94 | C$2.18 – C$3.96 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
Beat estimates in 1 of the last 4 comparable quarter(s).
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-31 | 2027-02-18 | — | 0.0700 | — |
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | 0.0200 | 0.0600 | -66.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-30 | 0.0600 | 0.1000 | -40.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | 0.0800 | 0.0600 | +33.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-19 | 0.0600 | 0.0800 | -25.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | 0.1900 | 0.0800 | +137.5% |
Investor takeaway: The results were mixed. EPS missed expectations, but supplemental figures show revenue and adjusted EBITDA increased. The prior-year quarter included a sale-leaseback gain and tax recovery, which affected the comparison. Supremex is also pursuing restructuring savings and investing in packaging capacity, but the available information doesn’t show how soon those efforts will improve earnings.
C$0.02 EPS versus C$0.06 estimated
EPS was 66.7% below the estimate. Supremex beat expectations in one of its last four reported quarters and missed in the other three.
Bull case
Supplemental results show revenue up 16.1% to $76.2 million and adjusted EBITDA up 38.5% to $8.6 million. Packaging revenue reportedly rose 44.4%. Planned equipment upgrades aim to increase capacity for folding cartons and e-commerce packaging.
A restructuring plan targets $5.7 million in annual savings once it reaches full run-rate in Q1 2027. Analyst price targets and statistical forecasts provide different points of comparison, but neither predicts where the share price will go.
Bear case
EPS was 66.7% below the calendar estimate, and net earnings reportedly fell to $0.5 million from $9.1 million a year earlier. The prior-year quarter benefited from a sale-leaseback gain and tax recovery. Even with that context, the miss highlights the difference between adjusted operating measures and bottom-line earnings.
Supremex has also estimated a $10–12 million tariff impact before restructuring savings. Its shares closed at C$3.38, below the 200-day moving average of C$3.59.
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