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TC Energy Moves Forward with Coastal GasLink Expansion After LNG Canada Decision

By Qayyum Rajan, CFA -

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TC Energy is set to expand its Coastal GasLink pipeline following a significant investment decision from LNG Canada, marking a pivotal moment for Canada's LNG export sector. The expansion aims to nearly double the pipeline's capacity, enhancing natural gas supply to international markets.

TC Energy is advancing the second phase of its Coastal GasLink pipeline project after LNG Canada and its partners finalized plans to expand the LNG export facility in British Columbia. This expansion will increase the pipeline's capacity from 2.1 billion cubic feet per day, leveraging existing infrastructure to meet growing international demand for Canadian natural gas.

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TC Energy Corp Pref Series 1

TRP-PA.TO

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TRP-PA.TO

TC Energy Corp Pref Series 1

Source:WealthAwesomeWealthAwesome
↑ $0.82 (3.86%)
120 day period
$21.25$22.32$23.39Apr 8Jul 3Sep 29

Market cap

$96.93B

P/E

6.7x

Div. yield

17.43%

Div. / share

$3.87

52W high

$23.18

52W low

$18.62

Beta

0.83

Wealth Awesome Price Forecast

WA Model

Statistical 90-day price range based on TRP-PA's historical volatility

HistoricalForecast68%95%
C$18.52C$20.05C$21.58C$23.11C$24.64C$26.17TodayMay 21Jul 24Sep 29Nov 11Dec 25Feb 6

30-Day Vol

12.0%

Annualized

90-Day Vol

9.7%

Annualized

Trend (90d)

-0.6%

Annualized drift

90d Mean

C$22.03

Expected price

HorizonExpected68% Range (1σ)
30 trading daysC$22.06C$21.16 – C$22.98
60 trading daysC$22.04C$20.79 – C$23.37
90 trading daysC$22.03C$20.50 – C$23.66

Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.

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Investor takeaway: This expansion positions TC Energy as a key player in the growing LNG market, potentially benefiting long-term investors as demand for natural gas rises.

What the Coastal GasLink Expansion Means for Canada's LNG Future

With construction set to begin in early 2027 and the expanded system expected to enter service in the early 2030s, this project represents a crucial step in meeting the anticipated increase in LNG demand, particularly from Asian markets. TC Energy's strategic focus on LNG exports aligns with projections of growing natural gas demand in North America over the next decade.

Bull case

  • The expansion will nearly double the pipeline's capacity without needing new construction, which helps keep costs and risks low.
  • It’s expected to create about 2,100 jobs during peak construction, boosting regional economic activity.
  • This project strengthens the connection between Western Canadian gas producers and international markets, which should support long-term demand.

Bear case

  • The project depends on successful construction, which could face delays or cost overruns.
  • Regulatory hurdles or community opposition might affect timelines and expenses.
  • The global LNG market is competitive, so any change in demand could impact the project's success.

Strengthening Canada's LNG Position

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The decision to expand Coastal GasLink comes at a crucial time for Canada's LNG export sector. With LNG Canada establishing a direct export route for Western Canadian natural gas, the expansion will allow for increased supply to the Kitimat terminal. This is vital as global demand for LNG continues to rise, particularly in Asia, where Canadian natural gas can serve as a reliable energy source.

Economic Impact and Job Creation

TC Energy estimates that the Coastal GasLink expansion could create approximately 2,100 jobs during peak construction. This follows the original project's success, which generated around 25,700 full-time-equivalent jobs in British Columbia and awarded over C$1.8 billion in contracts to local and Indigenous businesses. The economic benefits of this expansion are expected to be significant for the region.

Navigating Challenges Ahead

While the expansion is poised to enhance Canada's LNG capabilities, it is not without risks. The project must navigate potential regulatory challenges and community concerns. Additionally, the competitive landscape of the global LNG market means that TC Energy must execute this expansion efficiently to capitalize on the growing demand for natural gas.

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Published: September 30, 2026
Last Updated: September 30, 2026

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