Timbercreek Financial Corp's latest earnings report highlights some significant challenges, as the company fell short of analyst expectations.
Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF.TO) released its second-quarter earnings after the market closed on July 29, 2026. The results showed a notable miss in earnings per share (EPS), raising concerns among investors about the company's financial health and future performance.
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Timbercreek Financial Corp
TF.TO
TF.TO
Timbercreek Financial Corp
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$500.66M
P/E
19.5x
Div. yield
5.65%
Div. / share
$0.35
52W high
$7.05
52W low
$5.84
1W change
-2.26%
Beta
0.91
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TF
Wall Street analysts forecast TF stock price to rise 11.6% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
Moderately BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$6.75
+11.6% Upside
Current Price
C$6.05
Last close
Analyst ratings and price targets are updated periodically. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TF's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
17.0%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
14.5%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
-40.3%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$5.24
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$5.77 | C$5.44 – C$6.11 |
| 60 trading days | C$5.50 | C$5.06 – C$5.97 |
| 90 trading days | C$5.24 | C$4.73 – C$5.80 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 3 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-10-28 | — | 0.1300 | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0900 | 0.1700 | -47.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | 0.1200 | 0.1600 | -25.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-25 | 0.0400 | 0.1600 | -75.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | 0.1000 | 0.1700 | -41.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | 0.1500 | 0.1700 | -11.8% |
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Investor takeaway: With an EPS miss of 47.1%, Timbercreek's financial outlook is under scrutiny. Investors should keep an eye on the company's strategic initiatives to tackle its challenges and how these might affect future earnings.
EPS Misses by 47.1%: Actual $0.09 vs. Estimate $0.17
Timbercreek's EPS of $0.09 for Q2 2026 is significantly lower than the expected $0.17, reflecting ongoing issues in its mortgage investment portfolio and increasing credit losses.
Bull case
Timbercreek has shown strong origination activity and a stable income stream, which could support future growth if managed well. The company is actively working on its Stage 3 mortgage investments, which could enhance its portfolio's earning potential moving forward.
Bear case
The large EPS miss and a history of not meeting estimates raise concerns about Timbercreek's ability to handle market challenges. Additionally, rising expected credit losses could further impact the company's profitability.
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