Tiny reported a quarterly loss when analysts expected a profit, extending its streak to four consecutive earnings misses. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA were more mixed, but the EPS shortfall keeps profitability in focus.
Tiny Ltd. (TSX: TINY) reported results before markets opened on November 5 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. EPS was negative C$0.1227, compared with an estimate of C$0.21—a 158.4% miss. The result follows three earlier misses, including negative C$0.12 against C$0.17 in the June quarter. Supplemental reporting puts revenue at C$52.3 million, down 3% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA at C$13.2 million, up 30%. That points to stronger adjusted operating results, even as Tiny remained loss-making on reported EPS.
Recent earnings trend
Tiny Ltd.
TINY.TO
TINY.TO
Tiny Ltd.
WealthAwesomeMarket cap
$190.52M
52W high
$10.39
52W low
$4.63
1W change
+7.26%
Beta
-0.42
Analyst Price Targets
Based on analyst covering TINY · as of Oct 21, 2026
Wall Street analysts forecast TINY stock price to rise 50.0% over the next 12 months.
Consensus
BullishBased on avg. target vs last close (formal rating unavailable for Canadian listings)
Avg. Target
C$9.75
+50.0% Upside
Previously C$10.00 on Sep 17, 2026
Current Price
C$6.50
Last close
Targets are snapshotted when they change. Unchanged figures keep their original date. Not financial advice.
Wealth Awesome Price Forecast
WA ModelStatistical 90-day price range based on TINY's historical volatility
30-Day Vol
43.9%
Annualized
90-Day Vol
80.8%
Annualized
Trend (90d)
+21.2%
Annualized drift
90d Mean
C$7.01
Expected price
| Horizon | Expected | 68% Range (1σ) |
|---|---|---|
| 30 trading days | C$6.67 | C$5.73 – C$7.76 |
| 60 trading days | C$6.84 | C$5.52 – C$8.47 |
| 90 trading days | C$7.01 | C$5.39 – C$9.12 |
Methodology: Range is calculated using 30-day realized volatility via geometric Brownian motion (log-normal model). 68% band = ±1σ, 95% band = ±2σ. This is a statistical model, not a prediction. Past volatility does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice.
Analyst coverage: 1 analyst(s) cover this name; upcoming EPS consensus is available.
| Fiscal period | Report date | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 2026-11-05 | -0.1227 | 0.2100 | -158.4% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-08-06 | -0.1200 | 0.1700 | -170.6% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-13 | -0.1900 | 0.1500 | -226.7% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-03-30 | -1.3872 | -0.2200 | -530.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-13 | -0.1100 | -0.2600 | +57.7% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-12 | 0.4800 | -0.0800 | +700.0% |
Investor takeaway: The quarter sends mixed signals. Reported EPS fell well short of expectations, while supplemental figures show higher adjusted EBITDA and recurring revenue. Investors should keep these measures separate and watch whether operating gains lead to improved reported profitability. Tiny’s trailing 12-month EPS is negative C$4.14, and its profit margin is negative 63.55%, highlighting the broader challenge. See the Tiny stock page for company and share information.
Negative C$0.1227 EPS versus C$0.21 expected
The C$0.3327-per-share gap was a 158.4% downside surprise. Tiny has missed estimates in each of its last four reported comparable quarters, making this part of a pattern. The recent earnings trend table and chart show the quarter-by-quarter results.
Bull case
Supplemental coverage reports adjusted EBITDA of C$13.2 million, up 30%, and annualized recurring revenue of C$68.9 million. The Oso Cloud acquisition added C$5.3 million in ARR and brought a cloud infrastructure software business into Tiny’s portfolio. The shares closed at C$6.50, above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages of C$5.91 and C$6.04. Together, these figures may support the view that operating momentum and portfolio growth are taking shape despite the EPS loss.
Bear case
EPS of negative C$0.1227 was well below the C$0.21 estimate. Tiny has missed estimates in each of its last four reported comparable quarters. Revenue was C$52.3 million, down 3% year over year, compared with calendar consensus of C$52.41 million. Negative trailing 12-month EPS and a negative profit margin show the gap between adjusted operating measures and bottom-line profitability. The stock also remains below its 52-week high of C$10.39.
Analysis
Tiny reported EPS of negative C$0.1227 for the quarter ended September 30, against an estimate of C$0.21. The 158.4% miss follows negative C$0.12 against C$0.17 in the June quarter and negative C$0.19 against C$0.15 in March. The December 2025 quarter also missed, with EPS of negative C$1.3872 versus an estimate of negative C$0.22. Tiny has now missed estimates in four consecutive reported comparable quarters. One analyst estimated EPS of C$0.18 for the next fiscal period, but that forecast does not show that profitability has turned around.
Analysis
Supplemental web reporting, which is not part of the supplied earnings calendar, puts quarterly revenue at C$52.3 million, down 3% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA at C$13.2 million, up 30%. It also reports C$68.9 million in annualized recurring revenue, including C$5.3 million added through the Oso Cloud acquisition. The calendar’s revenue consensus was C$52.41 million, close to the reported figure. Adjusted EBITDA and recurring revenue help describe operating performance, but they do not change the reported EPS loss. See Tiny’s company and stock details for more information.
Analysis
The supplied analyst-target data shows an average target of C$9.75, compared with the last close of C$6.50. That implies 50% upside to the average target. The listed consensus label is bullish based on the target comparison, though a formal rating is unavailable for Canadian listings. See the analyst ratings section for details.
Wealth Awesome’s statistical 90-day price model gives a mean forecast of C$7.01, with a 68% range of C$5.39 to C$9.12 and a 95% range of C$4.15 to C$11.85. This is an uncertain statistical forecast, not financial advice. The uncertainty matters, especially given Tiny’s reported losses and 30-day volatility of 43.9%. See the price prediction section for details.
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